The McCain surge

E.J. Dionne:

The strangest thing about John McCain's campaign for president is that it's supposed to be dead, but it isn't. This is a real nuisance for his competitors.

The comeback is not showy or dramatic. And it's true that while McCain is better off than he was in July when his campaign imploded in a dazzling display of financial mismanagement and staff recriminations, he still faces a more difficult route to nomination than his well-financed rivals, Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney.

McCain himself, the overwhelming favorite a year ago, is cheerfully humble in characterizing his standing. "We've got a long way to go, but we are in the mix," he said Sunday on CNN's "Late Edition." In the mix is a big improvement over being out.

Nationally, McCain got a boost last weekend when a new Washington Post-ABC News Poll showed him in second place to Giuliani. The former New York City mayor had 33 percent; McCain, 19 percent; and the stalled Fred Thompson, 16 percent. Romney, who leads in both Iowa and New Hampshire, came in at 11 percent and Mike Huckabee had 9 percent.

The most interesting numbers are those of Huckabee and McCain. The former is finally being taken seriously not only by the press, but also by Republican voters. McCain rose from just 12 percent a month ago.

Thompson's sluggishness has been a form of life-support for McCain. Nowhere more so than in New Hampshire, which McCain took by storm seven years ago against George W. Bush. This state's Jan. 8 primary only recently looked to be Romney's launching pad to national stardom -- or Giuliani's opportunity to finish off Romney. Now Romney and Giuliani have to calculate how McCain might figure in their plans.

The mood of McCain's loyalists here combines relief with that certain restrained glee that comes from walking away in one piece from a car wreck. Jim Barnett, the candidate's New Hampshire state director, traces McCain's local comeback to his strong debate performance in early September and his renewed emphasis on the freewheeling town meeting formats that made him so many friends in this state.

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Dionne looks for reasons for the surge, but in doing so overlooks the obvious, because he and other liberals cannot comprehend it. McCain is making a comeback because he has retreated on the immigration issue and because the surge in Iraq that he backed is working beyond even the most optimistic expectations.

McCain has been the closest to being right about the war of anyone in Washington. He has long been a proponent of additional forces the success of the surge and the COIN (counterinsurgency warfare) operation has proved him right. The real danger for Democrats from a strong McCain candidacy is that he is in the best position to hammer them for their faintheartedness when the going got tough. They can't call him a chicken hawk either. He is in an excellent position to talk about how wrong the Democrats have been for the last year. I am not surprised Dionne did not think of that.