Is Iran at a tipping point?

Times:

A claim by President Ahmadinejad that Iran has 3,000 working uranium-enriching centrifuges sent a tremor across the world yesterday amid fears that Israel would respond by bombing the country’s nuclear facilities.

Military sources in Washington said that the existence of such a large number could be a “tipping point”, triggering an Israeli air strike. The Pentagon is reluctant to take military action against Iran, but officials say that Israel is a “different matter”. Amid the international uproar, British MPs who were to have toured the nuclear facility were backing out of their Iran trip.

Even before President Ahmadinejad’s announcement, a US defence official told The Times yesterday: “Israel could do something when they get to around 3,000 working centrifuges. The Pentagon is minded to wait a little longer.” US experts say 3,000 machines running for long periods could make enough enriched uranium for an atomic bomb within a year.

Israel responded by serving notice that it would not tolerate a nuclear Iran. “Talks never did, and never will, stop rockets,” said Ehud Barak, the Defence Minister, after talks with the security cabinet.

The US and Western allies believe that Iran is using its civilian nuclear programme as a cover for weapon development. Tehran says that it merely wants to generate electricity.

Concern about Israel’s intentions has been heightened by its recent air strike on a suspected nuclear plant in Syria. In 1981 Israel destroyed Saddam Hussein’s Iraqi nuclear reactor, and as the sole — if undeclared — nuclear power in the region, it now considers Iran the most serious threat to its security. Mr Ahmadinejad has called for Israel to be “wiped off the map”.

Efraim Inbar, of the Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies in Tel Aviv, said that the figure of 3,000 centrifuges would signal the ability of Israel’s arch-foe to produce the nuclear material needed for a warhead. “I wouldn’t be surprised if we do something if the international community leaves us alone,” he said. “I think we [Israel] are preparing for it. For Israel this is a critical technological moment.”

...

The story sounds threatening. Israel has the capacity to strike the most likely sites for the nukes, but it does not have the capacity to make the type of sustained attacks needed to destroy Iran's ability to make war and lash out against her neighbors. However if Israel does hit the Iranian nukes and Iran responds by lashing out, then US force would be used against Iran initially with the forces in the area and eventually with more carriers and B-2 bombers. If Iran lashes out at US forces in response to an Israeli attack, she will take care of any problems President Bush might have had in getting an authorization for the sue of force.