Is Iowa really that important?

Dick Morris and Eileen McGann:

BOTH 2008 front-runners are suddenly in danger in the Iowa caucus, the first electoral test of the presidential races.

Coming on Jan. 3 - only four weeks before the huge set of primaries on Feb. 5 - the Iowa contest will loom large in determining whether Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani face real competition or cakewalks to their nominations.

The New York Times/CBS poll released yesterday indicates real trouble ahead for both in Iowa. On the Democratic side, Clinton leads with 25 percent, followed by John Edwards at 23 percent and Barack Obama at 22 percent. In the GOP contest, Mitt Romney leads with 27 percent followed by Mike Huckabee at 21 percent and Giuliani at 15 percent.

This data contains several key surprises with important strategic implications:

* Hillary's showing raises the real chance that she could lose Iowa.

Months ago, Edwards was ahead, but Clinton had developed an increasing lead - until her recent dismal debate performance sent her fortunes diving.

*Edwards' No. 2 rank in Iowa seems a reward for his toughness in taking her on. Obama, who's been more reticent, has dropped. These results will likely prompt both challengers to ramp up their attacks on Clinton, making the situation worse for her.

* Giuliani's No. 3 rank in the Iowa poll reflects his continuing and inexplicable failure to run TV ads there.

A third-place finish would force him to battle against Romney in New Hampshire (one week after Iowa) and Michigan (10 days after Iowa), where Romney leads - and then in South Carolina (two weeks after Iowa), where Romney and Giuliani are tied for the lead.

* But Romney now faces a serious threat from Huckabee, whose fortunes have risen with each Iowa poll.

Since Huckabee is a true pro-life believer and Romney was pro-choice until right before he entered the presidential race, the ex-Arkansas governor could roll up Romney's right flank.

...

Let's see, Giuliani is behind because he has not run ads in Iowa, but Huckabee is surging even though he has not run ads in Iowa. Giuliani is probably trying to avoid the mistake that Dean made in 2004 by betting his campaign on Iowa and running out of money in the process, before he got to New Hampshire and South Carolina. I don't see Huckabee surging into a campaign finance race with any of the candidates based on his Iowa performance.

What Huckabee has shown is that he is a likable guy who is an effective campaigner without cash. That is nothing to sneeze at and it makes you wonder how effective he could be with financial backing. We are probably most likely to see that if he is selected as the nominees VP candidate. One of the things he has done well while moving up is avoided alienating the front runners. I think that is where he is in the race now and that is significant progress from where he started. He has also demonstrated a capacity for running against the Clinton machine in Arkansas and that is another plus for him.

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