Iran's proxy war in Lebanon

Amir Taheri:

WITHIN the next week or so, we'll know whether Iran (acting through proxies in Beirut) will trigger a new civil war in Lebanon.

The issue is the choice of a replacement for President Emil Lahoud, imposed by Syria during its occupation of Lebanon. His term of office expires Nov. 23.

Tehran's favorite for the job is ex-Gen. Michel Aoun, a maverick Maronite Christian politician. He is allied with the Lebanese branch of Hezbollah - whose leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has publicly threatened violence if the Iranian candidate does not win.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Islamic Republic president, sees the Lebanese election as a showdown with the United States and a potential blow at the Bush Doctrine of spreading democracy in the Middle East.

But a majority of the members of the Lebanese National Assembly - the parliament that has the task of choosing the president - refuse the Iranian choice. The so-called 14 March coalition of moderate forces backs two candidates, former diplomat Nassib Lahoud and ex-Defense Minister Butros Harb. (The moderates have also indicated that they might consider other compromise candidates, such as banker Joseph Tarbayh and former Finance Minister Damianus Qattar.)

Meanwhile, Syria, although an Iranian client, appears to have some reservations about Aoun. (The general once fought Syrian occupation with support from the Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein.) Damascus has indicated it might settle for a compromise in the person of Riad Salamah, the governor of the Central Bank.

French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner sought a compromise among the Lebanese parties - an agreement on a list of six or seven candidates acceptable to both the majority and the pro-Iran opposition in the parliament.

Under the Lebanese Constitution, the presidency must come from the Maronite Christian community. (The jobs of prime minister and parliamentary speaker are allotted to the Sunni and Shia Muslims.) So Kouchner suggested that the "compromise list" be established by Cardinal Antoine Sfeir, the Maronites' spiritual head. Sfeir came up with a list of six names (including both Aoun and Lahoud). But he won't make the list public until he receives written guarantees from all parties that they'll abide by the results of the election.

And the Aounites and their Hezbollah allies have so far refused to provide the written consent.

The election has split almost all of Lebanon's various ethnic and religious communities. Most Christians want a president who would symbolize Lebanon's independence from both Iran and Syria. A majority of the Sunni Muslims and almost all of the Druze community share that desire.

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The Shia make up about 40 percent and they do not all support Hezballah. If Democracy is not thwarted the Iranian and Syrian factions should lose. If it is, it will probably mean more fighting. Lebanon deserves better, but is unlikely to get it as long as Syria and Iran think it is their playground for a proxy war with the west.