Immigration is an issue--like it or not

Michael Barone:

October 2007 may turn out to be the month that immigration became a key issue in presidential politics. It hasn't been, at least in my lifetime.

The Immigration Act of 1965, which turned out to open up America to mass immigration after four decades of restrictive laws, wasn't one of the Great Society issues Lyndon Johnson emphasized in 1964. The Immigration Act of 1986, which legalized millions of illegal immigrants but whose border and workplace provisions have never been effectively enforced, was a bipartisan measure unmentioned in the debates between Ronald Reagan and Walter Mondale.

There was no perceptible difference on immigration between George W. Bush and Al Gore in 2000. Both favored a comprehensive bill with legalization and guest-worker provisions. John Kerry in 2006 and 2007 voted for immigration bills along the lines supported by Bush.

Now, things look different. In the Democratic debate on Oct. 30, Tim Russert demanded to know whether Hillary Clinton supported New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer's policy of issuing driver's licenses to illegal immigrants. The forthright answer: yes and no. A clarifying statement by the Clinton campaign later in the week did not much clarify things: a hedged yes. It was one of several issues on which Clinton seemed to take calculating and ambiguous non-positions. But it is one that may have major reverberations in the presidential campaign -- and in congressional races, as well.

The reason is that the Democrats -- and Bush -- are out of line with public opinion on the issue. That became clear as the Senate debated a comprehensive immigration bill in May and June. Most Republicans and many Democrats, in the Senate and among the public, turned against the bill. Supporters of the bill tended to ascribe that to something like racism: They just don't like having so many Mexicans around.

But if you listened to the opponents, you heard something else. They want the current law to be enforced. It bothers them that we have something like 12 million illegal immigrants in our country. It bothers them that most of the southern border is unfenced and unpatrolled. It bothers them that illegal immigrants routinely use forged documents to get jobs -- or are given jobs with no documents at all.

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Most Democrats have also been backing bills extending various benefits to illegal immigrants, like the Dream Act for college education for illegals brought over as children. There are appealing arguments for such bills. But most voters reject them. And most voters certainly reject driver's licenses for illegal immigrants. That was one of the issues that led to the recall of Gov. Gray Davis in California in 2003.

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As usual Barone gets it when much of the political class and punditry do not. It is about the rule of law and not rewarding those who ignore it. Opponents of enforcement talk about the impossibility of deporting all illegals, but they overlook the fact that many of these people will self deport if they cannot get the jobs and benefits that brought them here to being with. We are already seeing that in communities and states that have imposed their own tough enforcement provisions such as Oklahoma.

Another important effect of stronger enforcement is that more people are actually applying for citizenship. The LA Times yesterday reported a surge in applications "despite the higher fee." That the story was about the higher fee instead of the higher application numbers tells you something about the mentality of the media. But, those of us who favor stronger enforcement have no problem with people who immigrate legally. That is what we want.

What people definitely do not want is to see government give benefits to those who came here illegally. If Democrats think that extending benefits and privileges to illegals will help with one of their constituent groups they will drive others into the Republican camp. Even if Democrats belatedly move away from the wrong side of the issue, voters will remember where the passions of both parties lie.