Democrats like their chances with their low numbers

Paul Kane:

One year out from the election, congressional Democrats are increasingly confident they can tighten their hold on the House and Senate.

Although public approval of Congress has dipped dramatically since House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) took control early this year, Democratic operatives believe they still can expand their majorities in 2008 by running hard against President Bush and his war policies. Republicans are also hampered by mounting retirements of veteran member and a huge disparity in fundraising by the two parties.

"I'd much rather be in our shoes than their shoes," said Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. "George Bush and his legacy will be on the ballot."

Democrats wrested control of both chambers last year for the first time since 1994. The Democrats began the 110th Congress this year with a 233 to 202 vote edge over the Republicans, while on the Senate side Democrats and Republicans are evenly divided, 49 to 49, but two independents caucus with the Democrats, giving them a narrow ruling majority.

Van Hollen initially hoped his party could merely preserve their current majority in the 2008 election, after they picked up 30 seats last year, including many in conservative-leaning districts. Now, Van Hollen says he is "very much on offense" because of Bush's continued poor approval ratings and the sustained unpopularity of the Iraq war, both of which he expects to drag down a significant number of Republican incumbents.

Sen. Charles Schumer (N.Y.), chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, flatly predicted a pickup of GOP seats next year, but without setting a target. "We expect to win all 12 [Democratic incumbents] and pick up a nice number of Republican seats," he said.

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The Democrats' numbers are so low because their most ardent backers are angry with them for not insuring defeat in Iraq. But, the facts on the ground in Iraq have changed dramatically since last year and eventually those facts will catch up with the voters who will realize that the Democrats have been dead wrong on the issue and that their most ardent supporters have led them into a huge mistake. If the Republicans frame this issue correctly and attack the loser lobby and loser caucus it is the GOP that could win in a rout. Certainly the Democrats deserve to be routed for their bad policy positions on Iraq. The Democrats have put themselves on record as voting for defeat 55 or more times this year, while the troops were winning. that is a record to run away from not on.

The Democrats have successfully driven up President Bush's negatives through an aggressive and dishonest campaign falsely accusing him of lying and and falsely asserting that the Iraq war is a disaster. But the falsity of those accusations are becoming more apparent and besides, the President is not running for reelection.

The 2008 election should turn on how wrong the Democrats have been about Iraq. Much of the media is still in denial and still trying to ignore success in Iraq, but they cannot keep that up for another 12 months.