Perry leads latest poll, Kinky fading
...There is much more. All the candidates think they will do better than Zogby predicted. Zogby's polls tend to understate Republican strength until late in the race which suggest that Perry is probably closer to being right than his opponents. Zogby suggest that in a two person race Perry would be in more trouble, but I doubt it. Strayhorn voters would not vote for Bell and Bell would be lucky to get a third of the total vote in a two person race. That is about what the Democrat is getting in the race for Hutchison's Senate seat. In other words in a two person race with Perry and Bell, Bell would probably get Friedman's votes and Perry would probably get Strayhorn's votes.
Perry leads a five-person field with 38 percent support, according to the survey. Democrat Chris Bell has 22 percent support, and independent Comptroller Carole Keeton Strayhorn has 21 percent — a statistical tie. Independent Kinky Friedman trails badly at 10.5 percent, and Libertarian James Werner has just 1 percent support.
...Bell — despite a saturation television-advertising buy paid for by $2.5 million in donations and loans from Houston trial lawyer John O'Quinn — remains largely unknown to four of every 10 voters. And Bell has yet to consolidate even his own Democratic base.
Strayhorn shows strength among women, blacks and self-identified independents, but she has failed to make significant inroads with Democrats or Republicans.
Friedman simply is disliked by half the state's likely voters. His disapproval rating may be caused in part by racially insensitive remarks he has made and his poor performance in the gubernatorial debate, but the respondents were not asked to say why they approved or disapproved of any of the candidates.
The result: Because the winner need only get a plurality, not a majority, Perry probably will be elected to another four years in office on Nov. 7.
"The difficulty here is Perry has solidified in the high 30s," Zogby said of the challengers. "It would take two candidates to implode, and the odds of that happening are very, very nil."
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The story does give some interesting data on the internals of this polls and those of some of the competitors.
While there is a finding of "dissatisfaction" with Perry, it does not seem to be directed at anything specific, which probably means it is not a driving or passionate force in this election.
I think the race baiting against Friedman probably has hurt him and helped Bell, but not enough to make any difference in who will win.
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