The enemy's failed Ramadan offensive

Amir Taheri:

AMERICAN angst over Iraq typically misses two key points.

First: The United States has already achieved the goals it had proclaimed when it set out to liberate the country in 2003. Saddam Hussein and his war machinery are gone, with a democracy in their place, inspiring reform across the region.

Second: This success threatens countless interests - so the many enemies of the new Iraq are attempting to derail it. Yet their only real hope of victory lies with America public opinion.

Consider the events of the last month.

NEW Iraq's various enemies had designated the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan that has just ended as "The Month of Battle and Victory" (shahr al-maarakah wa al-nasr). Through their various statements, distributed on jihadist Web sites and TV channels owned by Arab despots, they had fixed a number of objectives that they had hoped to achieve with a view to demoralizing the American people and strengthening the cut-and-run party in Washington and London.

The average televiewer in the United States or Europe may well conclude that the enemies of new Iraq have achieved their Ramadan objectives. This has been the deadliest month in well over a year, with at least 600 civilians killed in several dozen insurgent operations. The Iraqi army and police lost more than 180 men, while U.S. forces suffered 98 dead.

The perception created is that of a situation in which the terrorists can strike where and when they want while U.S. and Iraqi forces are murdered without inflicting the slightest harm on the enemy.

Nevertheless, the Saddamites, the jihadists and the militias sponsored by Tehran not only achieved none of their objectives but also suffered their biggest losses since the start of the insurgency in 2004.

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THE only success they have had is in the field of perceptions in the United States and the West in general. They could point to the fact that the "Iraq is a failure" chorus is at its loudest yet in the United States, while signs of a possible British loss of nerve multiply.

It is largely the hope of breaking the will of the American people and its key allies that keeps the insurgency alive.

Taheri gives a long list of the enemy's stated objectives. None were achieved. However, like the Tet offensive which the communist lost, the media and the Democrats are desperate for defeat in Iraq and, they are willing to grasp at perceptions of defeat if the reality is not there. Some are arguing that the enemy's failed surge during the last month was a tipping point. If so it is clearly one of perceptions since the enemy still cannot win militarily.