Jack Kelly:
Debkafile, the private Israeli intelligence service, which is always entertaining but often in error, reports that al-Qaida is shifting more than 1,000 of its operatives from Iraq for terror offensives in Europe and elsewhere in the Middle East.Actually there is a better source than Debka for the change in strategy. As I wrote Saturday:
"The countries targeted were named as Britain, Italy, France, Denmark, Russia -- with the U.K. and Italy at the top of the list; and in the Middle East, Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Israel," Debka said on its Web site.The (successful) 7/7 and (fizzled) 7/21 attacks in London and especially the July 22 attack at the Sharm el-Sheik resort in Egypt suggest that this time Debka may be on to something. Six Pakistani men are being sought in connection with the Sharm el-Sheik, bombing, and the car bombs used in the attack appear to have passed through Egyptian customs.
If true, is the shift of forces from Iraq a product of confidence, of desperation, or of sheer nuttiness?
Debka suggests confidence. "[Abu Musab al] Zarqawi [the al-Qaida chieftain in Iraq] offered his estimate that after three years of joint combat, Iraqi insurgents ought to be capable of running the guerrilla war against the Americans on their own."
But except in news reports, the war in Iraq has been going poorly for al-Qaida. Retired Gen. Jack Keane, former vice chief of staff of the Army, said in a speech July 25 that so far this year, U.S. and Iraqi security forces have killed or captured more than 50,000 insurgents, including a significant portion of the leadership. While the majority of these have to be people who were interviewed and released, that's still an impressive total.
Car bombings, al-Qaida's specialty, have fallen from (a record high of) 170 in April to 151 in May to 133 in June, with less than 100 so far in July. (Journalists describe this as a "worsening" trend.) Al-Qaida could be storing up for an offensive when the new Iraqi constitution is unveiled next month. We'll know soon enough.
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Clumsy mistakes made in the London bombings suggest to Strategic Forecasting that al-Qaida has suffered "a rather serious decline in the quality -- though not necessarily the quantity -- of its operational assets." A shortage of skilled labor would explain why al-Qaida is shifting assets from Iraq. But, in effect, conceding defeat in the principal theater rarely is the path to ultimate victory.
In late February the US intercepted a message from bin Laden to Zarqawi telling him it was time to start attacking outside of Iraq. It is reasonable to suggest that the bombings in London and Egypt were a result of that message. At the time, many analyst thought it was an order to attack in the US. Apparently that is beyond the capability of al Qaeda at this time, so they attacked in areas where they have substantial followers.
The attcks have clearly backfired. They have no resulted in taking pressure off of al Qaeda's forces in Iraq, and have instead reduced political pressure on US and UK forces in Iraq. Yahoo's News site no longer list Iraq under its "Full Coverage" menu.
The attacks have also resulted in the loss of al Qaeda assets in the UK and Egypt, while at the same time increasing political and police pressure on al Qaeda supporters. It has also resulted in greater legal and political pressure on al Qaeda supporters in Pakistan where its operations appear to be based at this time. Pakistan is kicking the foreigners out of its Madrassas and has arrested many radical leaders. This further cuts al Qaeda's ability to communicate with its followers and excecute missions.
While al Qaeda continues to lose on all fronts, there are still many leftist in the US who do want to lose in Iraq. That is what al Qaeda is counting on at this point. If the leftist were in charge in the US or the UK the Mogudishu strategy would be working. Since they are not, al Qaeda and the leftist are both frustrated.
Where does one begin? You have been fed a line of disinformation. Osama is dead. So is Zarqawi. The bombing in Egypt was a Mossad operation. The attacks were not designed to ease up the war in Iraq, Britain was planning on withdrawing it's troops from there pre-7/7. Since the bombings have not benefitted 'al-Qaeda' at all, why did they carry them out? Answer, they didn't. Why was Binyamin Netanyahu the only one in England to receive forewarning on 7/7? Obviously you have been brainwashed by the source of your information.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the parody of the alternate universe that many in the left reside in.
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