The blue state demise

 Joel Kotkin:

A tale of two Americas

Red states are growing, while blue states are mired in lawlessness and decline.

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Usually, the media assume these two Americas represent equally viable political economies. But this is increasingly not the case. In population terms at least, red America is now growing far more rapidly than blue America. And this makes it more important politically. Since 1990, Texas has gained eight congressional seats, Florida five and Arizona three. In contrast, New York has lost five, Pennsylvania four and Illinois three. California, which now suffers higher net outbound-migration rates than most Rustbelt states, lost a congressional seat in 2020 for the first time in its history.

This decline in blue America has accelerated since the pandemic, due to rising crime and the availability of remote work. Last year, New York, California and Illinois lost more people to outbound migration than all other states. Demographer Wendell Cox notes that the largest percentage loss of residents has occurred in big core cities such as New York City, Chicago and San Francisco. In contrast, population burgeoned in sprawling areas such as Phoenix, Dallas and Orlando.
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Whether Democrats like it or not, these red-leaning places, not California or New York, are where more Americans plan to settle and start families. Today, blue-state economies, based on tech and finance, generally underperform more blue-collar red economies like Texas, Arizona, Florida and Tennessee. Over the past five years, Raleigh, Phoenix, Nashville, Salt Lake City and Dallas have grown jobs at a faster rate than Silicon Valley and Seattle – and at double the rate of New York, Los Angeles and Chicago.
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Red states are strongest at the level of small- and medium-sized firms. Last year, the biggest upsurge in new business formation took place in the deep south, Texas and the south west. Analysis by Zen Business this year found these were often the best places for small businesses – in terms of taxes, survivability and startup costs. Small business has emerged as a key GOP constituency. Almost two-thirds of small-business owners favour the Republicans.
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One of the things the blue loser states have in common is government greed.  They have high taxes on people and businesses and it cost more to build a factory or office building so rents are higher.  Housing is also expensive in most of the blue states.