Republican chances of winning the Senate grow
When the story of the 2022 midterm elections is written, there will probably be considerable space devoted to the unlikely way in which Republicans were able to win their majority.
As it stands now — the Saturday before election day — the Democrat’s road to a Senate majority is extremely narrow. Best case scenario: they may be able to lose two seats while still retaining their 50-50 advantage with Vice President Harris casting the deciding vote.
The current board shows 6 toss-up races. Two of those seats are currently in the GOP’s hands — Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Two other Republican-held seats in Ohio and Florida were toss-ups at one time but have moved into the “lean GOP” category.
If Democrats manage to win in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Republicans will have to win at least three of the remaining Democratic-held toss-up seats to win a one-seat majority. It would be a challenge but certainly not impossible.
But in a truly tsunami-like election, the wave becomes a destructive force for Democrats, meaning that even seats that “lean Democratic” may be in play. This means that Sen. Maggie Hassan’s New Hampshire seat is up for grabs as well as Sen. Patty Murray’s Washington Senate seat.
For our VIPs: GOP Momentum Continues to Hit Democrats Where It Really Hurts
As the path to a majority expands for Republicans, the Democrats’ road narrows. And as victory scenarios disappear, Democrats see the writing on the wall.
Hassan’s slight edge in her race is similar to GOP Sen. Ron Johnson’s modest advantage in Wisconsin. Numerous public surveys this week showed Johnson still leading Democrat Mandela Barnes, though by threadbare margins.
Like Arizona, which moved to “Toss Up” last week, the tightening in New Hampshire has come despite some national Republican groups pulling out of the state.
But while the top GOP super PAC, Senate Leadership Fund, has been absent, more ideological groups have filled the gap, like the Steve Wynn-funded Our American Century ($2.9 million in ads) and Sentinel Action Fund ($1 million), which is a partner organization of Heritage Action, an advocacy organization affiliated with the Heritage Foundation.
Joe Biden won New Hampshire by seven points and in a close race, that may be key. Similarly, in Washington where Patty Murray is in the political fight for her life, Biden took the state by nine points. Biden is more popular in both those states than he is almost everywhere else, making presidential approval more of a factor.
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It is hard to believe that Biden is popular anywhere, but he may hang on in some blue states. I think Republicans have a good chance of picking up a seat in New Mexico this year. I think Ron Johnson is probably going to win in Wisconsin.
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