Republican chances of winning the Senate grow

 Rick Moran:

When the story of the 2022 midterm elections is written, there will probably be considerable space devoted to the unlikely way in which Republicans were able to win their majority.

As it stands now — the Saturday before election day — the Democrat’s road to a Senate majority is extremely narrow. Best case scenario: they may be able to lose two seats while still retaining their 50-50 advantage with Vice President Harris casting the deciding vote.

The current board shows 6 toss-up races. Two of those seats are currently in the GOP’s hands — Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Two other Republican-held seats in Ohio and Florida were toss-ups at one time but have moved into the “lean GOP” category.

If Democrats manage to win in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Republicans will have to win at least three of the remaining Democratic-held toss-up seats to win a one-seat majority. It would be a challenge but certainly not impossible.

But in a truly tsunami-like election, the wave becomes a destructive force for Democrats, meaning that even seats that “lean Democratic” may be in play. This means that Sen. Maggie Hassan’s New Hampshire seat is up for grabs as well as Sen. Patty Murray’s Washington Senate seat.

For our VIPs: GOP Momentum Continues to Hit Democrats Where It Really Hurts

As the path to a majority expands for Republicans, the Democrats’ road narrows. And as victory scenarios disappear, Democrats see the writing on the wall.

Politico:

Hassan’s slight edge in her race is similar to GOP Sen. Ron Johnson’s modest advantage in Wisconsin. Numerous public surveys this week showed Johnson still leading Democrat Mandela Barnes, though by threadbare margins.

Like Arizona, which moved to “Toss Up” last week, the tightening in New Hampshire has come despite some national Republican groups pulling out of the state.

But while the top GOP super PAC, Senate Leadership Fund, has been absent, more ideological groups have filled the gap, like the Steve Wynn-funded Our American Century ($2.9 million in ads) and Sentinel Action Fund ($1 million), which is a partner organization of Heritage Action, an advocacy organization affiliated with the Heritage Foundation.

Joe Biden won New Hampshire by seven points and in a close race, that may be key. Similarly, in Washington where Patty Murray is in the political fight for her life, Biden took the state by nine points. Biden is more popular in both those states than he is almost everywhere else, making presidential approval more of a factor.

...

It is hard to believe that Biden is popular anywhere, but he may hang on in some blue states.   I think Republicans have a good chance of picking up a seat in New Mexico this year.  I think Ron Johnson is probably going to win in Wisconsin.

See, also:

Masters Pulls Ahead of Kelly in Arizona Race for Senate

And:

 Democrats' Circular Firing Has Already Begun, Can the Republicans Avoid One of Their Own?

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Should Republicans go ahead and add Supreme Court Justices to head off Democrats

Washington Post: Some Democrats eye adding more justices to the Supreme Court to change its ideological bent The once-remote idea has gained the attention of liberals angered by the GOP push to remake the federal courts. Probably the easy way to defeat this court-packing scheme is for Trump to propose doing the same thing now.  It would lead to Democrat denunciations and claims that it would be wrong, thereby blowing up any attempt by them in the unfortunate event of Democrats winning a presidential election.
Read more

29 % of companies say they are unlikely to keep insurance after Obamacare

Conn Carroll: A new survey of 368 midsize to large companies found that 29% of them are considering terminating their active employee health care plans when Obamacare is full implemented in 2014. Only 71% of employers surveyed said they did not expect to drop their health coverage, while 20% said they did not know and 9% said they were planning to exit. The latest survey, conducted by Towers Watson, echoes an ealier survey by McKinsey & Co. finding that 30% of private-sector employers were planning to drop their employee health insurance coverage by 2014. When the Congressional Budget Office crunched Obamacare's spending numbers, they estimated that only 7% of employees currently covered by employer-sponsored plans would lose their plans. ... This means the cost of the health care fiasco will be hundreds of billions more than estimated by the CBO and Congressional Democrat. It is also clear that Obama's pledge that you could keep your health care plan if you wanted t
Read more

Bin Laden's concern about Zarqawi's remains

James Robbins: ... Bin Laden suggests that President Bush should allow Zarqawi’s body to be returned to his family in Jordan, but this is a matter that is up to the Jordanian government, which so far has not shown much interest in facilitating a homecoming. Bin Laden mocks King Abdullah II, calling him a Coalition minion, and asking “w hat scares you about Abu Musab after he’s dead? You know that his funeral, if allowed to happen, would be a huge funeral showing the extent of sympathy with the mujahedin.” A large crowd would definitely turn out, though most people would be on hand to demonstrate their anger and disgust. Last November’s hotel bombings in Amman , masterminded by Zarqawi, are still fresh in people’s memory, and mentioning them to Jordanians has the same visceral impact as memory of the 9/11 attacks does here. Jordan has adopted a zero-tolerance policy towards those who choose to mourn the country’s least favorite son, and four opposition members of parliament who paid con
Read more