Democrats' losing the middle-class

 Douglas Schoen and Robert Green:

What is driving the defection of working, middle-class voters—who make up the majority of the electorate—from the Democratic Party? The answer: Democrats' priorities are substantially out-of-touch with this group specifically, and with those of the largely populist American electorate generally.

These are the findings of a new national survey. The poll, which measured the core values and beliefs of 900 likely midterm election voters, found that nearly 70 percent of the electorate embraces a populist outlook, either fully or partially, which is grounded in a desire for politicians to focus on the most immediate barriers to individual advancement.

These voters are most concerned with skyrocketing prices, the looming recession, and rising crime. They also view uncontrolled immigration as a major concern, and see it as intertwined with crime rates.

You'll notice that this is the precise agenda that Republicans are running on this year.

There are two segments within this larger populist group. The first, which comprises roughly one-third (34 percent) of the 2022 electorate, can be classified as true "populists." These voters embrace American exceptionalism and the notion of God-given—not government granted—rights. Roughly six in 10 identify as Republican, and only one-in-four voted for Joe Biden in 2020.

This segment of the American body politic believes in the power of individual initiative and shares the belief that Americans can get ahead if they work hard. A multi-racial category that includes Black and Hispanic voters, populists are averse to identity and class-based politics and view "wokeness" as a backward step and a distraction.

Three key everyday issues crowd out all the others with these voters, because they threaten individual advancement today: the deteriorating economy, increasing crime rates, and the migrant crisis at the Southern border.
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On the other hand, just 31 percent of likely voters—the smallest of the three voter segments—are "anti-populists." This group resembles the Democratic base in many ways: They are also multi-racial, but they over-index as college-educated whites. They're slightly younger and more likely to be women, and almost none are Republicans. They are also the least likely to vote in 2022.

Anti-populists firmly reject the idea that America is exceptional among nations. They fervently believe COVID lockdown policies worked. They view environmental regulations as sacrosanct and want a complete focus on wind and solar energy to the exclusion of American oil, natural gas, and nuclear, even if these environmental policies cost them money.
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I think the anti-populist are out of touch with reality, particularly on the energy front.  Wind and solar are - at best, supplemental sources of energy that are not reliable and would be much more expensive and thereby weakening the US economy. The Democrats are also out of touch on the immigration issue.  Biden has been totally irresponsible in that issue.