The rearmament of Japan

 Reuters:

Between China's 20th Communist Party Congress, that began Sunday, and the next one in 2027, Japan will undertake its biggest arms buildup since World War Two in a race to deter Beijing from war in East Asia, according to Japanese government officials and security analysts.

Japan identified China as its chief adversary in its 2019 defence white paper, worried that Beijing's flouting of international norms, pressure on Taiwan and rapid military modernisation posed a serious security threat. That anxiety has intensified since Russia invaded Ukraine, weakening Japanese public opposition to rearming, security experts say.

Japan's government "has the wind at its back and will use that to do whatever it can," said Takashi Kawakami, a professor at Takushoku University in Tokyo. By pointing to 2027 as the moment when East Asia's power balance may tip in China's favour, Japan's government can rally support for greater defence spending, he added.

In addition to being the next time Communist Party delegates gather in Beijing, 2027 is the next major milestone on China's military modernisation roadmap and the centennial of the founding of the People's Liberation Army. At a congressional hearing last year, U.S. Indo-Pacific commander Admiral Philip Davidson said that China's threat against Taiwan could "manifest" that year.

For Japan, losing Taiwan to mainland Chinese control could be a disaster because it would jeopardise key shipping lanes that supply nearly all Japan’s oil and many of the materials it uses for manufacturing. It would also give the Chinese navy unfettered access to the Western Pacific from bases on the island.
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I think Japan's concerns are warranted particularly because the US has fewer ships to control that area of the pacific. 

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