Polls underestimate GOP support

 Joseph Curl:

The polls they are a changin’.

In a generic ballot released this week by USA Today, Republicans are up four points over Democrats, 49-45.

That’s a huge change from USA Today’s previous poll in July when Democrats led Republicans 44-40.

So voters are clearly moving hard — and picking Republican candidates. But the polls are still underestimating the GOP strength, one pollster says.

“I think the ‘polling averages’ are going to end up (on average) underestimating the Republican margins by a net of 5%,” Mason-Dixon Polling Managing Director Brad Coker told The Daily Wire in an email. “I think the GOP will end up with 54 Senate seats. I don’t track House races district-by-district, but I generally think the Republican Party will net a gain of somewhere between 25 and 35 seats.”

“The correct way to interpret poll numbers is not to focus on what they are, but what they say. Over the last two weeks support for Republican candidates has been moving up, while support for Democrats has either dropped or remained frozen in place,” Coker said.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-GA) went even further. “I would say we’ll be between plus three and plus seven … in the Senate; and we’ll be between plus 20 and plus 50 in the House, with the most likely number being plus 44,” Gingrich told The Epoch Times.

“Almost everywhere in the country, races are showing the Republicans tightening up,” Gingrich said, noting that inflation, crime, border security, and “woke policies” are all “coming together” against the Democrats’ favor.

For reference, in the 2014 midterm elections, pre-vote generic polls put Republicans ahead by 2.4 points. But the real tally was nearly double that — Republicans spanked Democrats by 5.7 points, picking up nine U.S. Senate seats and 13 House seats.
...

The polls do tend to underestimate the Republican vote by between three and five percent.  I suspect that is happening in the 2022 race too.

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