Russia continues to lose ground in Ukraine and attacks civilians

 ISW:

Ukraine’s northern Kharkiv counteroffensive has not yet culminated after one month of successful operations and is now advancing into western Luhansk Oblast. Ukrainian forces captured Hrekivka and Makiivka in western Luhansk Oblast (approximately 20 km southwest of Svatove) on October 5.[1] Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai reported that Ukrainian forces have begun liberating unspecified villages in Luhansk Oblast on October 5.[2] Ukrainian forces began the maneuver phase of their counteroffensive in Kharkiv Oblast— which has now reached Luhansk Oblast—on September 6.[3] Russian forces have failed to hold the banks of the Oskil and Siverskyi Donets rivers and leverage them as natural boundaries to prevent Ukrainian forces from projecting into vulnerable sections of Russian-occupied northeast Ukraine. The terrain in western Luhansk is suitable for the kind of rapid maneuver warfare that Ukrainian forces used effectively in eastern Kharkiv Oblast in early September, and there are no indications from open sources that the Russian military has substantially reinforced western Luhansk Oblast. Ukraine’s ongoing northern and southern counteroffensives are likely forcing the Kremlin to prioritize the defense of one area of operations at the expense of another, potentially increasing the likelihood of Ukrainian success in both.

Russian forces conducted a Shahed-136 drone strike against Bila Tserkva, Kyiv Oblast, on October 5, the first Russian strike in Kyiv Oblast since June.[4] Footage from the aftermath of the strike shows apparent damage to residential structures.[5] Russian milbloggers lauded the destructive capability of the Shahed-136 drones but questioned why Russian forces are using such technology to target areas deep in the Ukrainian rear and far removed from active combat zones. That decision fits into the larger pattern of Russian forces expending high-precision technology on areas of Ukraine that hold limited operational significance.[6]

Russian President Vladimir Putin took measures to assert full Russian control over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP). Putin issued a decree transferring control of the ZNPP to Russian state company Rosenergoatom on October 5.[7] The ZNPP’s current Ukrainian operator Energoatom announced that its president assumed the position of General Director of the ZNPP on October 5.[8] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Russian officials are coercing ZNPP workers into obtaining Russian passports and signing employment contracts with Rosenergoatom.[9] International Atomic Energy Agency General Director Rafael Grossi plans to meet with both Ukrainian and Russian officials this week in Kyiv and Moscow to discuss the creation of a “protective zone” around the ZNPP.[10] Russian officials will likely attempt to coerce the IAEA in upcoming discussions and negotiations into recognizing Rosenergoatom’s official control of the ZNPP, and by implication Russia’s illegal annexation of Zaporizhia Oblast.
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Russian troops continue to lose ground within Ukraine and Putin's main response is to use drones on civilians in Ukraine and claim control of a nuclear power station in occupied Ukraine.  He appears to have run out of combat force needed to resist the Ukraine offensive.  The smart move by Putin would be to withdraw his troops into Russia and rebuild his economy and his military.  I suspect Putin does not think he could survive such a move.

See, also:

Ukraine’s Troops Size Up the Enemy: ‘They Are in a Panic’

Ukrainian soldiers are exulting in their smashing of Russian lines in the northeast. They engaged enemy troops up close, and gained confidence from it.

And:

Putin confronted by inner circle member over Ukraine war, U.S. intelligence finds

The insider voiced discontent over the mismanagement of the war and mistakes being made by those executing the military campaign, according to people familiar with the intelligence.

And:

 Russian Infighting Peaks With Calls for Suicide and Execution

 Just over two weeks since Vladimir Putin’s latest hail mary in his war against Ukraine, things are going so well for the Russian leader that draftees are rioting, his top allies are at each other’s throats over a series of losses, and his defense minister has now been urged by his own team to blow his brains out.

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And:

 Thousands of newly-mobilized Russian conscripts in Belgorod complain about “barbaric conditions”

And:

 Ukraine's three likely routes of attack as the brain-dead Russian army collapses

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We knew this Russian force suffered from poor training, equipment, leadership and morale. We knew it was a brittle shell surrounding a void where other armies would have built a moral core.

Even so, when stress-tested in the white heat of battle, even the most optimistic Ukrainian observers were taken aback at the abject failure of the Russian army to perform. No major objectives have been seized in nearly eight months of hard fighting.
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