Republicans polling better than Dems

 Washington Examiner:

Deep-blue Oregon could elect a Republican as its next governor in November thanks to a particular set of circumstances that have lined up in the GOP’s favor.

Republican candidate Christine Drazan led her Democratic opponent, Tina Kotek, by 2 points in an Emerson College poll this week. It was the latest sign that the party in control of Oregon for decades is struggling to convince voters to give Democrats more time at the helm.

“I think this is maybe the most fascinating and surprising governor’s race in the country,” Jessica Taylor, the Senate and governors editor for the Cook Political Report, told the Washington Examiner. “You have kind of a confluence of different things that are giving Republicans a unique opportunity.”

NEVADA REPUBLICANS LEADING IN STATEWIDE RACES: POLL

No Republican has won an Oregon gubernatorial race in 40 years, giving Oregon one of the longest unbroken streaks of Democratic control in the country.

Despite the decidedly liberal bent of the state, however, Drazan has a few advantages this cycle.

Oregon’s current leader is the least popular governor in the country, complicating Kotek’s job of selling a similar platform to voters. Democratic Gov. Kate Brown’s approval ratings have plummeted due to her perceived leniency on crime and the aggression of her pandemic-era mandates.

An independent candidate, Betsy Johnson, has also chipped away at some of Kotek’s support among Democrats.

While Johnson has pulled voters from both parties, she’s taken more Democrats than Republicans, according to the Emerson poll.

Nine percent of Oregon Republicans said they planned to vote for Johnson, but 17% of Oregon Democrats said they would back the independent.

Johnson’s straight-talking style and deep-pocketed campaign donors have given her a significant share of support in recent polls.

Phil Knight, co-founder of Nike, has poured millions of dollars into Johnson’s campaign, helping her to outraise both Drazan and Kotek in a rare feat of fundraising prowess for a third-party candidate.

Crime has put Kotek on defense from both of her opponents.

Johnson has mocked Kotek as “tent city Tina” and complained the streets of Oregon are “a mess.”

...

Oregon has become a mess under Democrat control in recent years. The Democrats have failed to protect the people in many areas of the state and the homeless situation has also grown worse.  The "tent city Tina" label looks apt. 

See, also:

Rasmussen Poll: Republicans Expand Lead to Four Points on Generic Congressional Ballot

And:

 NY Governor Poll: Republican Lee Zeldin Almost Even With Incumbent Democrat Kathy Hochul

“comes as the incumbent Democrat — seeking election to the seat for the first time — faces sharp criticism over rising crime in New York as well as alleged pay-to-play schemes with campaign donors”

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