GOP has a shot at taking back control of the Senate

 Elizabeth Stauffer:

The polls have tightened since Labor Day. The Democrats ' widely touted summer bounce has faded, and a real shift back to the GOP has begun. But will it help the party win back control of the upper chamber come the November midterm elections ?

A look at the Senate map shows that, barring any shocks in "likely" or "safe" Republican races, the party needs to win five of the eight "toss-ups," which include Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In Ohio, Republican J.D. Vance holds a slim lead of 1.2 points over his opponent, Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH). RealClearPolitics moved this race from its toss-up column to "leans Republican" on Sept. 20 and projects this seat will be a GOP hold, a sentiment echoed by many pundits.

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) has pulled ahead of his progressive opponent, Mandela Barnes, and now leads by 3 points. He is looking strong. In Nevada, Republican Adam Laxalt has come from behind incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) to lead by 2.2 points. He clearly has momentum and is widely expected to win this race. Rep. Ted Budd (R-NC) has increased his lead slightly to 1.5 points over Democrat Cheri Beasley.

The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics currently rates the races in North Carolina, Ohio, and Wisconsin as "lean Republican" and has Nevada in the toss-up column. RealClearPolitics projects these four seats will land in the GOP column. Let’s assume the GOP wins these four races.

In New Hampshire, Democrats interfered to boost far-right retired Army Gen. Don Bolduc in the Republican primary hoping he would lose the general election. Although a Trafalgar Group poll released on Wednesday showed Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) up by just 3 points, most Republicans are pessimistic about Bolduc’s chances in the Granite State. Similarly, in Arizona, incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) remains ahead of Republican challenger Blake Master by 3.9 points. Kelly’s lead has shrunk from the high single digits since the summer, which has some Republicans hoping that Master can pull off an upset victory in November. But let's put New Hampshire and Arizona in the Democratic Party column.

Assuming these results, Republicans will need to prevail in either Georgia or Pennsylvania to win overall control of the Senate.

In Georgia, Democratic incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock is up 3.8 points over his Republican rival, NFL great Herschel Walker. Less than a week ago, Warnock led by 0.7 points. Walker trailed by as much as 10 points this summer after revelations of his illegitimate children and history of mental health problems surfaced, but he has rebounded strongly over the past month. On Monday night, however, the Daily Beast reported that in 2009, the anti-abortion Walker paid for his then-girlfriend to get an abortion. Walker has vehemently denied these allegations, and there are still five weeks to go, but this news could hurt him.

Until recently, Democrats saw the Pennsylvania Senate race as a likely pickup opportunity. But there’s been a major shift in momentum toward the Trump-backed Dr. Mehmet Oz. He and the state’s lieutenant governor, John Fetterman, are vying for the open seat held by Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA), who is retiring. As of Thursday, the RealClearPolitics average of polls in this race showed Fetterman ahead by 4.3 points, less than half the size of his summer lead. Still, Oz has traveled the state tirelessly, hammering the progressive Fetterman over his extreme positions, particularly his soft-on-crime views. It appears to be having an effect. On Tuesday, the Cook Political Report moved this race from "leans Democrat" to the toss-up column.
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Unless the pollsters have cleaned up their act, they have been understating the GOP vote by four or five points in most recent elections.  If that is the case in 2022 the Democrats are going to lose and the country will win.