Russia revises it war plans in Ukraine

 ISW:

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Russia’s main effort is now focused on eastern Ukraine, with two subordinate main efforts: capturing the port city of Mariupol and capturing the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. The Kremlin claims the entirety of these oblasts as the territory of its proxies in eastern Ukraine, the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR and LNR).[2] The Kremlin is increasingly redeploying troops from other axes of advance and channeling its remaining reinforcements from Russia into eastern Ukraine. Russian forces are unlikely to conduct active operations on other fronts in the coming weeks.

The Kremlin may intend to capture Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before seeking to negotiate a Kremlin-favorable ceasefire and claim that Russia has achieved its war aims. The Kremlin’s initial false justification for its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine was to protect the DNR and LNR from Ukraine and enable them to seize their “claimed” territory. The Kremlin is attempting to gloss over the failure of Russia’s initial campaign for a domestic Russian audience. The Kremlin has in fact been forced to alter its operations after the failure of its initial campaign. Kremlin claims that Russian forces solely attacked northeastern Ukraine to degrade Ukrainian forces before achieving the “main goal” of capturing Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts – such as statements made by the Russian General Staff on March 25 – are false.[3]

Russian forces have three supporting efforts: Kharkiv and Izyum; Kyiv and northeastern Ukraine; and the southern axis, including Kherson.
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Russian forces continued to advance in central Mariupol on April 1.[5] The Ukrainian General Staff reported at midnight local time on March 31 that Ukraine’s 36th Marine Brigade and other units are maintaining the “circular defense” of Mariupol, but Russian forces continue to take territory.[6] DNR officials shared footage on March 31 that they claimed showed a Ukrainian base in central Mariupol captured by Russian and DNR forces, though ISW cannot independently confirm this claim.[7] Russian forces likely intend to capture Mariupol before advancing northwest to support ongoing operations to capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast. However, Russian forces fighting in Mariupol are likely suffering high casualties and will likely be unable to support further offensive operations after capturing the city.
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The Russians did not have much choice after the failure of their initial plan.  They have even fewer troops to exercise now.  The troops around Kyiv were at the end of an unsustainable supply line and have been constantly under attack by Ukraine forces and citizens. They are back to a minimalist campaign that they will still struggle with because of Western sanctions and resistance in places like Mariupol.  

One of the things that have been exposed by the war is the poor quality of the Russian army from top to bottom as well as the poor performance of the Russian equipment from rifles up to cruise missiles and aircraft.  With the impact of the sanctions on the Russian economy, it is likely to take years for Russia to recover from this lost war.