80% chance of Russian default on debt?

 Business Insider:

A BlueBay Asset Management strategist has estimated that there's now an 80% chance Russia will be forced into a "nightmare" default on its foreign-currency-denominated bonds.

Timothy Ash told Insider on Tuesday that a default is more likely after the US Treasury blocked the Russian government from making payments using American banks.

BlueBay's senior emerging-markets sovereign strategist added that the default might hurt US bondholders but that it's "their own fault" for investing in the country.

JPMorgan is Russia's foreign-correspondent bank. The US Treasury on Monday blocked the bank from processing more than $600 million worth of maturity and coupon payments on dollar bonds, a person familiar with the matter told Insider.

A spokesperson for the US agency told the Financial Times: "Beginning today, the US Treasury will not permit any dollar debt payments to be made from Russian government accounts at US financial institutions.
...

Ash, a veteran emerging-markets strategist, said Russia has enough dollars to pay. That's because it still has access to a chunk of its foreign-currency reserves, and it is earning money from oil and gas exports.

The bigger problem is that the government is likely to struggle to find banks that are willing to process its payments, he said.
...

The opposition to Russia's war against Ukraine is having a cascading effect as companies avoid doing business with the Russian government.  Sanctions have already delivered what Putin calls a shock to the Russian economy. 

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