Media polls starting to catch up with Trump momentum

Red States:
If there was some feeling over the last couple of weeks that Donald Trump was moving in the right direction electorally, we now have more empirical evidence to back that up.
ABC News has released their latest state polling and the President has now taken the lead in two key states, pointing to a race that is tightening and moving in Trump’s direction as Joe Biden continues to hide in his basement most days.

There’s obviously a lot of moving parts when it comes to an election ultimately decided by the electoral college. The response from Democrats to this will be that Biden doesn’t need Florida and Arizona. Yet, that eschews how connected everything ultimately is. If Trump wins Florida by 3 points, he’s going to be a clear favorite to snag one or two of the former “blue wall” states he took from Hillary in 2016. There’s not much of a scenario where Trump wins with that margin in Florida but can’t pull Wisconsin or Pennsylvania.
Arizona was also a state Democrats were really banking on to cement a Biden victory. It has been trending blue for a while. But if Trump is able to hold on there again, it’s a very good sign for possible shifts happening elsewhere.
Another thing to note here is that Trump is far outpacing Joe Biden with Hispanic voters compared to Hillary Clinton. We’ve seen hints of that in other polls and this newest offering undergirds that notion. If Trump over-performs 2016 with Hispanics by 5-10 points, that could swing the election in his favor. We are also seeing reports of sky-high voter registration among non-college-educated whites in the midwest. That’s a demographic that heavily favors Trump. In other words, there are a lot of factors lining up here for a photo finish, and all of the recent news is bad news for Biden.
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The earlier polling showing Biden with a substantial lead is being pushed into the background as we get closer to election day.  We are also starting to see a replay of 2016 when Trump pulled ahead of a sickly Clinton.  In this case, Biden is looking even weaker than Clinton healthwise.

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