US death tolls are not 'matching the models' of predicted deaths from coronavirus

Clarice Feldman:

To ascertain how fatal a virus is, we need an accurate picture of how many people have it (the denominator) and how many have died as a result (the numerator), we have neither, but the data is improving and with it some substantial shifts away from the original model, which predicted far more deaths as a result of the Wuhan virus than we are seeing. (Rather like the Zika scare where the claim that virus resulted in natal microcephaly was proven upon examination to be anecdotal and not scientific -- but only after the WHO declared it a pandemic and we spent $1 billion to deal with it.) Early models also could not accurately predict how quickly the virus would spread and what tools could be brought in to limit mortality. As the data comes in, we have reason to be more optimistic that the death rate will be lower, the extreme efforts to control its spread should soon be relaxed, and that efficacious treatments are already underway. (Unfortunately, I can be far less sanguine about the end of Democratic rapaciousness in the face of national emergencies or media disingenuousness.)
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Dr. Birx, the White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator, said this week as well that our experience is not matching the models: “The predictions of the models don’t match the reality on the ground in either China, South Korea or Italy. We’re about five times the size of Italy, and if you did those divisions, Italy should have close to 400 thousand deaths. They’re not close to achieving that.”

The regular press briefings by the White House are transparent and informative, and if you want to know where we are in this “pandemic,” I urge you to watch them and not heed the filtered news from the press, some of whom are working to cut the briefings off out of fear that they may boost the president’s chances at re-election, in which case you can find videos of them online. 

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It is axiomatic that when actual results are different from the projections it is because one or more of the underlying assumptions was invalid.  In the face of the virus, while it is extremely contagious, the death rates from it are substantially less than predicted.  It is worse than the normal flu, but not by nearly as much as the doomsayers predicted.