Democrats falling into 2014 GOP trap

Robert Costa:

House GOP insiders acknowledge a shutdown is increasingly likely, due to House conservatives’ aversion to passing a “clean” continuing resolution that simply funds the government. But the leadership isn’t ready to concede defeat, and, behind the scenes, Speaker Boehner and his allies are finalizing their strategy for the eleventh hour.

Here’s how it could play out, according to sources familiar with the leadership’s closed-door deliberations.

First, the House passes a CR today that delays Obamacare’s implementation for one year and repeals the medical-device tax. This legislation will almost certainly die a quick death in the Senate.

Should that happen, the House will send another bill back — and here’s where it gets interesting. The leadership is mulling several options. At the top of the list is a revised CR that includes the Vitter amendment, authored by Senator David Vitter (R., La.), which would eliminate Obamacare subsidies for congressional staffers and members.

The leadership thinks that a final CR with Vitter’s language would put them on solid political ground, even if Senate Democrats resist. In that scenario, and the government shut down, Republicans would argue that Democrats shut down the government to protect their perks.
...

This would put heavy pressure on red state Democrats and Reid might let a few of them defect.  But one clue of how scared Democrats are is their claim that the showdown hurts Republicans when the polling shows voters favor the GOP position.