Poll suggest a Cruz-Dewhurst runoff in senate race

Texas Tribune:

Texas’ Republican primary for U.S. Senate is close — and could be headed for a July 31 runoff — with Lt. Gov. David Dewhurstholding a single-digit lead over former Solicitor General Ted Cruz, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll.

Dewhurst had the support of 40 percent of likely voters, followed by Cruz at 31 percent. Former Dallas Mayor Tom Leppert had 17 percent and broadcaster and former football player Craig James was at 4 percent, with five other GOP candidates bringing up the rear.

Daron Shaw, a UT-Austin government professor and co-director of the poll, said Cruz has been able to position himself to the right of the lieutenant governor for a May 29 Republican primary where that's a big advantage — and he's done that in a year in which insurgent candidates have been scoring big wins against establishment Republicans.

In Indiana, longtime U.S. Sen. Richard Lugar fell to state Treasurer Richard Mourdock in a GOP primary race that some framed as an establishment-versus-insurgent result (it was also a cautionary tale for incumbents falling out of touch with constituents). In Nebraska, state Sen. Deb Fischer, an outsider candidate backed by Sarah Palin, defeated state Attorney General Jon Bruning and state Treasurer Don Stenberg in the Republican primary for an open U.S. Senate seat after the two focused their attacks on each other and left her a path to victory. A good showing by Cruz could be read as another thread in that fabric.

"If they're in a runoff, Dewhurst is in trouble," Shaw said.

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If there is a runoff it will depend on how the Leppert votes break.  His base of support is among conservatives in the Dallas-Fort Worth area.  I think Ted Cruz has a chance.  The poll was conducted before Cruz got an endorsement from Sarah Palin.  In other states her endorsements have moved the needle significantly in some cases such as the Nebraska senate race.