Perry leads White 48-37
Image via WikipediaThere has been a dearth of polling on the Texas governor’s race lately, but I have in my hands a poll that was taken October 15-17. Its data set is on the large side, 1,200 respondents, spread proportionately across all of Texas’ regions and media markets. It’s a joint poll by the Texas Civil Justice League, the Texas Farm Bureau and the Texas Medical Association, not an internal of either campaign, though these groups do lean to the right and the TMA and the TCJL’s PAC have endorsed Perry (the Farm Bureau did not endorse either candidate)....There is much more.
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The 48-37 is about where the numbers have been since Perry opened up his positive “Texas is Open for Business” ad run plus his security themed media campaign, indicating that Texans who may have flirted briefly with White have been reminded that Texas is in comparatively strong shape and have therefore come home to Perry. “Don’t fire the coach if the team is winning” seems to be the thinking. Absent a very large October Surprise, this race is over and for Republicans, it’s time to run up the score in the state House and congressional races. Early voting totals around the state hint that that’s already happening. Early voting has shattered records nearly everywhere.
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While Democrats have tried to pretend that this is a closer race than this poll suggest, the more important number is Whites which has consistently been in the low 40s and high 30s. He has never been in the lead in any poll to date and Perry has consistently been in the mid to high 40s. I just do not see this being that close a race right now. Since I will be out of the country on election day, I have already voted and the number of voters in the early voting line was pretty high and looked pretty much Republican.
White has not had an underfunded race. If anything he has advertized more than Perry. He has been dragged down by a general negative attitude toward Democrats this year. But, I think the more important dynamic in the race is that the Texas economy has outperformed the rest of the country during Perry's tenure in office leaving White little to work with.
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