Intelligence report looks at Taliban successes

CNN:

A December 22 briefing, prepared by the top U.S. intelligence official in Afghanistan and obtained by CNN, maps out the strategy and strength of the Taliban and their allies in Afghanistan, and concludes that the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan is increasingly effective.

The briefing, which warns that the "situation is serious," was prepared by Maj. Gen. Michael Flynn last month. His assessment is that the Taliban's "organizational capabilities and operational reach are qualitatively and geographically expanding" and the group is capable of much greater frequency of attacks and varied locations of attacks.

According to the briefing, the insurgency can now sustain itself indefinitely because of three factors:

• The increased availability of bomb-making technology and material;

• The Taliban's access to two major funding streams, one from the opium trade and the other from overseas donations from Muslim countries, which reach the Taliban by courier or through a system of informal banks known as "hawalas" that operate across much of the Islamic world; and

• The Taliban's continuing ability to recruit foot soldiers based on the perception that they "retain the religious high-ground," and factors such as poverty and tribal friction.

A chart in Flynn's briefing notes that security incidents -- which include improvised-explosive attacks, ambushes, mortar and missile assaults -- routinely hit 500 a week in the second half of 2009. That compares with a weekly average of no more than 40 five years ago. Even in the generally slower winter fighting season, incidents have not fallen below 300 a week.

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This reminds me of that intelligence report suggesting that Anbar province was lost in Iraq right before the Anbar awakening.

The incidence reports are a flawed metric. They tend to lump successful and failed attempts together and the latter far out number the former. This is important because it shows that the enemy has to greatly increase its efforts to achieve limited "success."

Where the report really misses the mark is in the areas where the Marines and other units have pacified. In those areas the Taliban have been largely pushed out of the population and we are getting good cooperation from the population in finding and destroying the enemy. As the srge continues we will see more such areas. The real question will become whether we have the strategic patients to finish the job.