Republicans have the momentum

Reid Wilson:

John McCain successfully closed the gap with Barack Obama when he chose Alaska Governor Sarah Palin to be his running mate. But beyond the presidential contest, Republican leaders in Congress see a shifted landscape for their candidates, and for the first time in months, they have reason to be cautiously optimistic about the November elections.

"In the last three or four weeks, Democrats thought, especially after their convention, they thought things were all moving in their direction," National Republican Senatorial Committee chair John Ensign told Real Clear Politics. "The momentum has totally changed, and it's on our side."

While the Republican brand remains unpopular with voters around the nation, polls have shown a generic Republican congressional candidate creeping to within striking distance of the generic Democratic candidate. That gap has closed, Republicans say, because Palin has given their party inroads with voters who would otherwise have been firmly in the Democratic camp.

"She's a pretty interesting character. I think Americans like that story, they like 'Mr. Smith Comes to Washington,'" said Tom Cole, who chairs the National Republican Congressional Committee. "If you're the Republicans, you need to make the public take a second look at you this cycle."

Her gender is no small part of her appeal. "Governor Palin has energized our base, not only energized our base but made a lot of women take a second look at the Republican Party," Ensign said. But gender isn't everything, he continued: "She's a reformer. That she's a woman is a bonus."

In the weeks since Palin was picked and as the Republican base has tuned in, several of Ensign's Senate GOP colleagues have shown improvement. A recent poll conducted for the NRSC showed New Hampshire Senator John Sununu trailing his Democratic opponent by just two points, after surveys have showed Sununu behind by double digits. Another poll had Colorado Democratic Rep. Mark Udall leading ex-Rep. Bob Schaffer, a Republican, by a single point, while earlier surveys showed Udall with a bigger lead. And in Palin's home state, Senator Ted Stevens even boasted his first lead of the cycle over Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich; Stevens leads by two points in another NRSC poll.

In the interview, Ensign hinted that other polls had been conducted, though he wouldn't discuss details. Palin helps his candidates, he said, especially in the Inner Mountain West, where voters' natural libertarianism would match well with Palin's philosophy. Ensign also singled out North Carolina Senator Elizabeth Dole, who is locked in a tough battle for re-election with Democratic State Senator Kay Hagan.

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The energy issue has also energized Republicans. I would not discount that effect joining with the enthusiasm of the Palin nomination. It is hard to ignore the mistake the Democrats made by leaving town without addressing the energy issue and actively opposing drilling when 75 percent who want to exploit our own energy resources.

Palin has added to the energy behind this issue with the excitement she brings to the base and to independents.