Al Qaeda's last stand

Strategy Page:

The war in Afghanistan and Pakistan, between the governments and Islamic radicals, has become so violent this year that Pakistan is now the center of the war against Islamic terrorism. So far this year, over 8,000 people have died in this part of the world due to Islamic violence. About half the deaths are in each country. It is really the same war, with the Taliban and al Qaeda active in both places. Al Qaeda has moved its money, and most of its leaders and technicians, to this part of the world, after being defeated in Iraq. Al Qaeda has declared Afghanistan and Pakistan their new main battleground. On a more pragmatic level, this is al Qaeda's last stand. There's nowhere else in the world, outside of the tribal areas of Pakistan, along the Afghan border, where al Qaeda could find refuge. Their allies, the Taliban, are a Frankenstein like monster, created by the ISI (the Pakistani CIA) fifteen years ago. Recruiting Afghan exiles, and students from religious schools (founded by Saudi religious charities during the 1980s), the ISI armed these Talibs (religious students) and sent the Taliban into Afghanistan to win the civil war there and bring order out of the chaos. That only worked for a few years. But the Taliban ideas caught on with some of the Pushtun tribes on both sides of the border. These tribes want to rule both countries, but because of their short lived Taliban success in the late 1990s, believe they have a shot at running Afghanistan again.

Pakistan is another matter. Al Qaeda would have its hands full if it tries to take over Pakistan....

Al Qaeda's biggest problem is that most of their support is among the Pushtun tribes, and these only comprise 15 percent of the Pakistani population. They are also the poorest and least educated minority....

...

There is more.

Al Qaeda is definitely trying to consolidate its forces in the region. The Taliban and al Qaeda have been making in effective attacks on coalition forces in Afghanistan and retreating to their bases in Pakistan taking advantage of Pakistan "sovereignty." Pakistan needs to get as excited about their breeches of its sovereignty as it does attacks by US forces on the bad guys. The Pakistan position is illogical and they need to recognize that.