Bush declined to support Israeli attack on Iran

Guardian:

Israel gave serious thought this spring to launching a military strike on Iran's nuclear sites but was told by President George W Bush that he would not support it and did not expect to revise that view for the rest of his presidency, senior European diplomatic sources have told the Guardian.

The then prime minister, Ehud Olmert, used the occasion of Bush's trip to Israel for the 60th anniversary of the state's founding to raise the issue in a one-on-one meeting on May 14, the sources said. "He took it [the refusal of a US green light] as where they were at the moment, and that the US position was unlikely to change as long as Bush was in office", they added.

The sources work for a European head of government who met the Israeli leader some time after the Bush visit. Their talks were so sensitive that no note-takers attended, but the European leader subsequently divulged to his officials the highly sensitive contents of what Olmert had told him of Bush's position.

Bush's decision to refuse to offer any support for a strike on Iran appeared to be based on two factors, the sources said. One was US concern over Iran's likely retaliation, which would probably include a wave of attacks on US military and other personnel in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as on shipping in the Persian Gulf.

The other was US anxiety that Israel would not succeed in disabling Iran's nuclear facilities in a single assault even with the use of dozens of aircraft. It could not mount a series of attacks over several days without risking full-scale war. So the benefits would not outweigh the costs.

...

I think both are valid concerns. I have said on several occasions that any attack on Iran should be sustained for a matter of weeks not days and should hit all of the targets that effect Iran's ability to make war so that they would not be in a position to make the kind of attacks that concerned President Bush.

If there is going to be an attack on Iran by Israel, the US would need in place the air power to accomplish the kind of campaign I outlined above and we do not have such a force in the region at this time. The article goes on to point out the obvious that the Israelis would not be able to launch such an attack without the US becoming aware of it.

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