McCain likely voter lead 54% to 44%
The Republican National Convention has given John McCain and his party a significant boost, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken over the weekend shows, as running mate Sarah Palin helps close an "enthusiasm gap" that has dogged the GOP all year.Talk about burying the lead. The material in the bold italics is a much more reliable indicator of the results if the election were held today. It is also consistent with my rule of thumb that the registered voter polls skew toward the Democrats by about four percent in understating the GOP vote.McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 50%-46% among registered voters, the Republican's biggest advantage since January and a turnaround from the USA TODAY poll taken just before the convention opened in St. Paul. Then, he lagged by 7 percentage points.
The convention bounce has helped not only McCain but also attitudes toward Republican congressional candidates and the GOP in general.
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McCain has narrowed Obama's wide advantage on handling the economy, by far the electorate's top issue. Before the GOP convention, Obama was favored by 19 points; now he's favored by 3.
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In the new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, McCain leads Obama by 54%-44% among those seen as most likely to vote. The survey of 1,022 adults, including 959 registered voters, has a margin of error of +/— 3 points for both samples. (Emphasis added.)
Among the findings:
• Before the convention, Republicans by 47%-39% were less enthusiastic than usual about voting. Now, they are more enthusiastic by 60%-24%, a sweeping change that narrows a key Democratic advantage. Democrats report being more enthusiastic by 67%-19%.
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The findings on the Congressional races are also very interesting. I think much of that is related to the energy issue and the Democrats vacation from responsibility on it. I think that is also a big part of the movement on the economic issue since fuel prices are dragging down the economy and driving up the cost of everything.
ABC's Jack Tapper says this about the poll results:
...Yep.
Obama's campaign always said before the American people made their final decision about him, the Democrat would be judged on three things -- the VP pick, the convention, and the debates. Now two of the three have gone down, and the American people have liked McCain's stuff better.
Update: The Reuters story in the NY Times covering this poll didn't just bury the lead, it left it out entirely. I am not sure if that is editing by the paper or omission by Reuters. Either way the omission is revealing.
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