Democrats losing their edge

Dick Morris and Eileen McGann:

THE convention floor was abuzz all yes terday with the news of the CBS poll showing a dead tie (42-42) in the presidential race. And the poll, conducted through Wednesday, couldn't reflect the impact of John McCain's speech, or the full impact of Sarah Palin's late Wednesday night. It reflected opinions only after the Democrats' convention, Barack Obama's incredible speech, the Palin selection and the early, Gustav-depressed GOP gathering.

That augers ill for the Democrats. Tonight's polling could bring evidence that the Obama candidacy is in big trouble.

First, the GOP convention managed to disprove the central premise of the Democratic assault on McCain: that he is a clone of President Bush. The Republicans wisely marginalized Bush to a non-prime-time videotaped speech, and sprinkled disappearing dust on Dick Cheney.

The speeches, and the very fact of the Palin designation, repudiated Washington and focused on how McCain is an agent of change - this ticket is populist, reformist, anti-establishment, grass-roots and anti-corruption.

And McCain last night made the point plain: "Let me offer an advance warning to the old, big-spending, do-nothing, me-first-country-second Washington crowd: Change is coming."

If Bush were the nominee, this campaign wouldn't suffice to push voters away from Obama. But now that McCain has moved decisively away from the administration, Obama's lost much (at least) of his advantage on the issue of reform. Now other doubts about Obama could elect McCain.

The turning point was the designation of Palin and the personal attacks on her. By stirring up a storm, Democrats assured that Palin would speak to 34 million Americans - just a million fewer than watched Obama's acceptance speech.

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They've seen the media and Democrats gang up on her and do their worst. And they've seen Palin stand up and stuff the challenge right back down the establishment's throat. All this may have created an entirely new dynamic in the race.

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Trying to kill the Palin candidacy was a huge mistake that gave her a forum she would not have had otherwise. It will take the weekend polls to see what kind of bounce the ticket got out of the convention, but the Democrat reaction suggest to me it will be significant.

I am not sure how much to credit the CBS poll. It does not really show increased support for McCain, but does show decreased support for Obama. In other words some of prior support has drifted into the undecided column. The big advantage to McCain in that is that the undecideds have generally broken against Obama.

My sense is that Palin has been a big plus and we should see that in the weekend polls.