Al Qaeda correspondence shows disarray

Bill Roggio:

Al Qaeda's senior leadership has lost confidence in its commander in Iraq and views the situation in the country as dire, according to a series of letters intercepted by Multinational Forces Iraq earlier this year.

The letters, which have been sent exclusively to The Long War Journal by Multinational Forces Iraq, are a series of communications between Ayman al Zawahiri, al Qaeda's second in command, Abu Ayyub al Masri, al Qaeda in Iraq's leader, and Abu Omar al Baghdadi, the leader of al Qaeda's Islamic State of Iraq. These letters were intercepted by Coalition forces in Baghdad on April 24, 2008. One of the letters written by Zawahiri is dated March 6, 2008.

Coalition forces found the letters in the possession of a senior al Qaeda in Iraq leader called Abu Nizar, whose real name is Ali Hamid Ardeny al Essawi. He was killed after he stopped at a checkpoint in Baghdad and later identified by al Qaeda operatives in custody.

At the time of his death, Nizar served as al Qaeda in Iraq's information minister. His responsibilities included running al Qaeda in Iraq's propaganda network as well as the primary link to the regional terror group and al Qaeda's senior leadership.

These communications with al Qaeda in Iraq leaders matched the US military's view that the terror group suffered a major setback in Iraq.

"The letters confirmed our assessment that Al Qaeda has suffered significant damage and serious reverses in Iraq, including widespread rejection of [al Qaeda in Iraq's] indiscriminate violence, extremist ideology, and oppressive practices," General David Petraeus, the Commander of Multinational Forces Iraq told The Long War Journal. "Even Zawahiri recognized that [al Qaeda in Iraq] has lost credibility in Iraq."

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Information from recently captured al Qaeda operatives supports the letters from senior al Qaeda leaders that portray the jihad in Iraq being in disarray, according to a Multinational Forces Iraq document obtained by The Long War Journal.

An operative captured on Aug. 21 said the group has "lost the overall fight" and suffers from "extreme financial difficulties." Al Qaeda in Iraq and the Islamic State of Iraq do "not presently have any long time plan and are only focused on short time fighting," the operative told US forces.

Another operative, also captured on Aug. 21, said "foreign fighters in Iraq are on the brink of extinction and the group's "biggest concern right now is where to sleep at night without being arrested."

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It is good news. It also flatly contradicts the Democrat story line on Iraq as well as the NY Times formulation about al Qaeda and its ties to Iraq. They have been so willfully ignorant on the point, I doubt they will change their story just because the facts don't fit it.

What this material does do is point out the wisdom of President Bush and John McCain in sticking with the fight and defeating al Qaeda in Iraq. I think these letters have the potential of seriously embarrassing Obama in a debate on Iraq where he is already on the defensive about his opposition to a winning strategy.

This Washington Post story makes an unfair attack on Sarah Palin by denigrating her argument about fighting al Qaeda in Iraq. She was not arguing that Saddam planned 9-11 but she was arguing that those who did plan it are sending their forces into Iraq to fight us and the Iraqis.