57 state strategy no more

Jay Newton-Small:

Barack Obama has never been particularly shy about his hope to reshape the political landscape of a country deeply divided between red and blue. To much fanfare earlier this year, his campaign launched into General Election mode pledging to make a serious play in all 50 states: the idea was scoffed at as a waste of time and money by Republicans, and lauded by many Democrats as at least a shrewd way to tie up the GOP's resources. But until recently, even as some anxious Democrats started to view the 50 state strategy as an indulgence their candidate could no longer afford, Obama seemed to have followed through — even now he has a few paid staffers sitting in Salt Lake City, despite the fact that Utah is the most Red of Republican states. His advisers argue that the approach not only expands the playing field and aids down ballot candidates, but also helps with fundraising and adds to volunteer efforts in neighboring states more in play — such as, in the case of Utah, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada.

But now, as voter registration winds down in the next two weeks and the impact of John McCain's running mate Sarah Palin becomes clearer, the Obama campaign has apparently scaled back its outsized electoral ambitions. It is already shifting staff abandoning some states, and putting others on notice. If they once technically played in all 50, they're now down to 48 you can cross Alaska and North Dakota off the list and two other states, Montana and Georgia, are on life support. The choice of Palin not only crushed Obama's hope of winning the Frontier State the campaign has withdrawn most of its staff and ceased advertising there — it also had repercussions in North Dakota, another hockey-crazed northern state where snow mobile racing and moose burgers apparently resonate. The Obama campaign announced this week that they are redeploying their staff estimated in some press reports to be more than 50 people.

"We always knew it would be an uphill battle, but because people across the country in Red States and Blue States are hungry for change, we built a grassroots movement we are proud of and an infrastructure that will help candidates up and down the ballot," says Amy Brundage, an Obama spokeswoman, of the decision to pull out. The news isn't entirely a surprise, as Obama cut advertising in North Dakota by 50% in recent weeks. And the moves come as Obama has been forced to mount more serious defenses of Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin — states where it spent nearly $1.5 million in television advertisements last week.

Another state in which Palin's down-home, conservative appeal may be having an effect is neighboring Montana, where Obama also recently decreased his advertising budget by 50%. Though Obama approached, and in a few polls even led, McCain in surveys of both states over the summer when Obama was the only candidate up with advertising, he now trails McCain by double digits in North Dakota and Montana; Real Clear Politics, a non-partisan website that tracks the campaign, recently moved both states into the "solid McCain" column. Still the campaign is taking a wait-and-see approach in Montana as staff and volunteers race to register as many voters as possible. Essentially the campaign's entire state-by-state strategy will come down to voter registration: it will keep investing in the states where they can sign up enough new Democrats to make the race competitive, and will likely abandon those where they can't.

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There is more. What seems clear to me is that Obama's advertising continues to be ineffective. He was able to outspend Hillary Clinton three to one in the later primaries and still lost in the big states. In most of these states he is pulling out of he was outspending McCain a 100 to one and it was not moving voters into his column. The same thing has been happening in Florida where Obama has spent heavily.

He is now having to spend more in Blue states that he thought he already had in the bag. If you look at the turnout for McCain Palin and then Obama in Green Bay, Wisconsin this week, you see who has the enthusiasm and the momentum behind them. There were a lot of empty seats at the Obama rally. McCain and Palin continue to draw record crowds and excitement.