Dems give McCain an opening on Mexico

Johnnie Byrd:

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Lately, it is hard to ignore that Ciudad Juarez has become a literal war zone where unimaginable brutality has transformed this once sleepy tourist town into a living hell for its 1.3 million inhabitants. According to the El Paso Times, “The violence, which has included kidnappings, car-to-car shootings on boulevards and victims pelted by machine guns in broad daylight …has Juarenses looking over their shoulders as they try to go about their daily lives.”

The state of affairs can only be described as anarchy, with drug cartels brazenly fighting each other while intimidating and even assassinating police and government officials.

It’s no wonder that Mexicans are openly asking if their country has descended into civil war. When polled, 53 percent of Mexicans said cartels are defeating Mexican forces engaged in a nationwide crackdown. Only 24 percent believed the government is winning. On our side of the border, 62 percent of El Paso voters believe the violence is spilling over into their city.

With encouragement from President Bush and new funding from Congress, Mexican President Felipe Calderon has taken a hard line on the drug cartels, sending federal police and army troops to Juarez. Yet, the Merida Initiative, a multi-year, $1.4 billion program is aimed at beefing up Mexico’s law enforcement capabilities in its war on drugs, is in trouble in the Congress. Reductions in the funding commitment and unilateral “strings” attached to the remaining funding place the plan in jeopardy.

The Arizona Daily Star aptly observed that the Democrats should fear that McCain will, “probably try to cut into the Democrats’ growing lead among Hispanics by saying that their proposal to reduce the Merida Initiative by up to $190 million amounts to ‘abandoning’ Mexico at a time when President Felipe Calderón's government is facing attack from the drug cartels.”

This indeed is an opening for McCain, especially considering that both U.S. Presidential contenders have already delivered their obligatory Latin America policy speeches—both devoid of any focus on Mexico. Yet, turning the U.S. voters’ attention to Mexican issues might reopen a raging immigration debate. Will McCain play it safe and ‘leave this sleeping dog’ alone? Or, will McCain seize the opportunity to win recognition from Hispanic voters by boldly extending the “McCain Doctrine” to include a ‘surge’ of military assistance for Mexico.

The opening for McCain is real since Obama has his own challenges gaining the Hispanic vote. One veteran Texas political organizer summed it up for the Dallas Morning News, “Right now, Obama has a problem with the Latino vote, a very serious problem. If any Republican ever had a chance to get the Mexicano vote, it would be McCain.”

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There is a real possibility of spillover. One El Paso hospital is in lock down to protect a Mexican citizen who had been gravely wounded. Some Mexican law enforcement officers are fleeing to the US for asylum.

I had not considered the election impact of the Mexican aid, but it should be an issue that McCain can seize.

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