The coming close election

Michael Barone:

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So who's going to win? In a parliamentary system, the answer would be easy: Obama. Voters prefer Democrats to Republicans generically. In Senate races, Democrats could conceivably gain 10 seats, and a theoretically veto-proof majority, if all the possibly close races go their way. In the House, Democrats' three special election victories in seats that, based on their performance in the 1996-2004 period, were safely Republican suggest that they could make similarly impressive gains. In no seat do the Republicans seem incapable of losing.

On the presidency, it's a different story. The most recent polls collected by realclearpolitics.com show Obama leading McCain by an average of 47 percent to 45 percent. That's just about the same as Obama's average lead of 47 percent to 44 percent in the 43 national polls taken since ABC and Fox News aired the Rev. Jeremiah Wright tapes on March 13 and a little less than his average lead of 48 percent to 43 percent in the 15 national polls taken after Super Tuesday and before March 13.

But the popular vote is one thing and the electoral vote, as we learned eight years ago, may be another. In all the statewide public polls taken in February, March, April and May, McCain leads Obama in 29 states with 281 electoral votes and Obama leads McCain in 21 states with 254 electoral votes (add 3 more for the District of Columbia, which nobody bothered to poll).

To be sure, both candidates lead by only a narrow margin in some states, and the numbers in some states may be skewed by polls that were just plain wrong. And enough states are close -- carried by a candidate by 7 percent of the vote or less -- to suggest that we are headed to an election as close as 2000 and 2004.

But it's not going to be on the same battlegrounds. McCain has narrow leads in some familiar target states -- Michigan, Missouri, New Hampshire and Ohio. But he also leads narrowly in states that were not on the target lists last time -- Alaska, Montana, North Carolina, Virginia and (!) Texas. Obama has narrow leads in some familiar target states -- Nevada, New Mexico, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. But also in some states not on 2000 or 2004 target lists -- Colorado, New Jersey and (!) Massachusetts.

Moreover, some states that were prime targets in 2000 and 2004 may not be this time. McCain leads by 8 percent in Florida and by 18 percent in West Virginia -- until 2000 considered safely Democratic. Obama leads by 8 percent to 10 percent in Minnesota, Oregon and Wisconsin. As I counseled some months ago, it's time to throw out that old map of the red states and blue states. There are more states -- and some different states -- in play this time.

It may be time, too, to throw out the old rule that says that economic distress moves voters toward Democrats. McCain is maintaining or improving on George W. Bush's performance in Michigan, which has the nation's highest unemployment rate, and in economically ailing Ohio. Obama is running significantly better than John Kerry or Al Gore in economically vibrant Virginia and North Carolina.

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Contrary to what a lot of polls seem to indicate on their generic ballots, the issues don't really favor the Democrats as much as the hype would indicate. On energy the Democrats are rightly blamed for the high oil prices by a significant margin. McCain wastes this advantage by siding with the Democrats on things like AANWR, but other Republicans could take advantage of the high gas prices and what they are doing to the economy.

Democrats are also on the wrong side of the trade issue and taxes. On taxes particularly the the Republican point of view is still heavily favored.

While the war has been presented as a Democrat issue, less than 30 percent of the country favor Obama's position. The Democrats and Obama were just flat wrong about the surge and there recent attempts to explain the improvement are laughable such as Pelosi's suggestion that Iran was responsible for the reduced violence. That is just beyond laughable into the totally inane. At some point the Democrats should be paying a price for wanting to surrender to al Qaeda in Iraq and McCain is in a strong position to challenge them on that issue.

Democrats still have some undeserved carryover from the "culture of corruption" campaign from two years ago, but anyone focusing on that issue this year would see more Democrats than Republicans with ethical and corruption issues. The fact is that the Republican brad has been tarnished by a false image projected by Democrats and the GOP needs to turn that mirror image back on the Democrats.

In the one area where Republicans have missed opportunities, such as earmarks the Democrats are even worse. McCain is also positioned to score points on Obama on this issue too. With his earmark to help his wife get an exorbitant raise in her hospital position, as well as his earmark to help the distanced Pfather Pfleger, Obama looks pretty sleazy on the issue. It was one Clinton could not exploit, because she was an even bigger porker.

The Republicans have opportunities this year if they can break through the media embrace of Obama and get traction on these issues.