Is bin Laden in Pakistan city?

Wretchard at the Belmont Club thinks the arrest of his interpreter in Pakistan, who was recently transfered to Gitmo.

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Interestingly, Rahim's arrest as described by the Pakistani Nation suggests he was no longer purely a translator. He was arrested in Lahore, some distance from the tribal frontier. Caught up within a proximate time frame in Peshawar was Sheikh Ilyas Khel, who is now apparently one of Bin Laden's translators. Two men in personal contact with Bin Laden were arrested in close conjunction in time but widely separated in space.

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One could speculate that Rahim had become too senior to merely translate and Bin Laden had obtained a new language assistant in Ilyas Khel. However that may be, the six month lagged snapshot shows an intelligence net closing in around Osama Bin Laden's immediate circle. The circumstances suggest that Bin Laden and his core group are definitely located in Pakistan, not within Afghanistan. No amount of troop buildup in Afghanistan will directly lead to the capture of Bin Laden. This is an "over the fence" problem.

It's reasonable to infer that Bin Laden himself now lives in a city attended by a few guards at most. A person requiring a translator (and as Khel shows that translator must sometimes leave his side) could not long operate undetected in a village environment. Plus, we know from Rahim and Abdul al Hadi's activities that Bin Laden needs to keep in touch with his Middle Eastern operatives. These two circumstances probably rule out a headquarters in the frontier mountains unless Bin Laden is willing to risk resorting to telecommunications. [It's interesting to note that the mere NSA capability to intercept comms deters al-Qaeda from using them except for very narrowband purposes.]

Therefore any decisive effort to "get Bin Laden" must take the shape of intelligence operations within Pakistan itself. A large military force to "get him" will not be needed. What's needed is information. So how far are the hounds from Bin Laden? We are looking at a seven-month old episode in the ongoing hunt for OBL and one can only assume the game has moved on. Although Rahim's arrest has only now made US news headlines, the article in the Pakistani Nation indicates that Osama must have known his inner defenses were breached as far back as August, 2007 which is unfortunate.

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It is an interesting theory. I have seen other speculation that suggest al Qaeda's leadership is in one of Pakistan's cities. On the other hand there have been several sightings of Zawahiri in the tribal areas as well as a few attempts on his life. Also arguing in favor of an isolated area is bin Laden's desire for privation. Laurence Wright in his Looming Tower describes bin Laden as reveling in austere surroundings and a meager diet. It is something that at least some of his wives did not think they were signing up for when they married a rich Saudi. His poor health also suggest he is probably pretty close to Dr. Zawahiri. The CIA has suggested that there may be a falling out between the Egyptian and Saudi factions, but they have developed a real codependency. The Egyptians are inept at raising and managing money and bin Laden is more a fantasist than a strategist.

I do agree that they are in Pakistan somewhere. There is one argument for the city location and that is the recent bombing of a police unit that is working on finding the Islamic religious bigots.