The East Texas Democrat swing vote

Houston Chronicle:

Battleground Texas in the Democratic presidential primary is firming up, with Hillary Rodham Clinton in control of South Texas and Barack Obama apparently owning Houston and Dallas, a new tracking poll shows.

And in the one-time bastion of the Texas Democratic Party — East Texas — the race is swinging back and forth.

Statewide, Obama holds a lead, but pollster John Zogby said the race is too close to call, especially with heavy turnout in early voting. Zogby said Obama is leading Clinton among young voters, men, blacks and holds almost 60 percent support in Houston and Dallas.

...

Democratic demographer Leland Beatty of Austin said 65 percent of the early voting turnout in Houston through Thursday included people who had not cast a ballot in the past three Democratic primaries. At least a quarter of the turnout is black, he said.

And 11,213 — 8.2 percent — were people who previously had voted in the Republican primary, he said.

The new voters would seem to favor Obama, Beatty said, but 69 percent of the early vote was cast by people older age 40 and 41 percent of the votes were from older women. Obama's appeal has been strongest with people younger than 40.

On Saturday, Clinton continued to try to create voter doubts about Obama as she campaigned in Dallas and Fort Worth. She slammed him on national security, saying that "his entire campaign is based on one speech he gave at an anti-war rally in 2002."

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"What she's saying is just factually incorrect and designed to be sarcastic and try to diminish my record," Obama said. "She should be more focused on trying to sell hers, and ... part of that record is her support for a war that shouldn't have been authorized."

...

Obama seems wrapped up in the past on the issue of the war and has an incoherent plan going forward when it comes to the war. The longer Clinton can stay in the race the more evident that will be. Whether that will swing voters in East Texas or anywhere else at this point is another question. It may take until the fall for voters to wise up to his incoherence.

The Washington Post is reporting that within ethnic groups like the Hispanics in South Texas, there is a generational divide. The younger voters are opting for Obama and the older ones are sticking with Clinton. I still think this is an advantage to Clinton since the older voters are more likely to show up and vote.

The NY Times has more on Clinton's attack on Obama's 2002 speech and his lack of comparative experience. I think he is more vulnerable on the incoherence of his current strategy for IRaq, but then again, Clinton also has problems with a coherent message on Iraq. So did John Kerry. Their problem, in part, is the kook base's desperation for defeat clashing with a sensible choice on what to do with the current situation.