Will GOP embrace Giuliani?

Susan Page:

Rudy Giuliani would seem to have all the credentials a candidate for president could want: A hero of 9/11, a crime-busting federal prosecutor, a two-term Republican mayor in an overwhelmingly Democratic city and one of the most admired politicians in the country.

He's got a big problem, though. First, he has to be nominated by Republicans who don't yet know his views on social issues.

"People remember how he provided leadership at a time the city needed it and the country needed it," says coin-company executive Jeff Marsh, 41, as he waits to greet Giuliani at the annual dinner of the Littleton (N.H.) Chamber of Commerce. While Marsh's admiration of Giuliani the man is evident, however, his support for Giuliani the presidential candidate is no sure thing. Giuliani's advocacy of abortion rights gives him "some pause," Marsh says ruefully.

The question is this: Can the thrice-married New Yorker — a supporter of abortion rights, gay rights and gun control — win the nomination of a Republican Party that has become increasingly dependent on and influenced by conservative Christians?

Maybe not, says Tony Fabrizio, a GOP pollster who advised Bob Dole's 1996 presidential campaign.

"As a presidential candidate, Rudy Giuliani should absolutely be taken seriously," Fabrizio says. "As a contender for the Republican nomination, he should be taken significantly less seriously. He has the stature to be president, but how does he get the Republican nomination? That is the fundamental disconnect."

Republicans tend to stick with front-runners. In each of the last nine presidential elections, the GOP contender who led the field the year before the election has won the nomination. Despite Giuliani's edge at the starting line, however, there is widespread skepticism among insiders such as Fabrizio whether he'll be there at the finish.

With the war in Iraq raging and terrorism a global threat, Giuliani's campaign could measure just how powerful social issues continue to be in the GOP. "He may be the candidate to test that proposition," says former Republican national chairman Ed Gillespie, now the party's state chairman in Virginia.

At least at the moment, Giuliani leads the Republican field, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds. He holds a narrow advantage over Arizona Sen. John McCain, who is often identified as the party's front-runner. In January, 31% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents said Giuliani was their likely preference for president; 27% chose McCain. Former House speaker Newt Gingrich was third at 10%.

In a head-to-head contest, Giuliani beat McCain 50%-42%.

Giuliani, who declined to be interviewed for this story, also shows appeal beyond the GOP.

Dubbed "America's mayor" after he led New York City's response to the Sept. 11 attacks, Giuliani had a nearly 4-1 favorable rating among all those polled. McCain had a 2-1 favorable rating, and the rating for Democratic hopeful Hillary Rodham Clinton was only a bit more positive than negative.

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There is much more giving the upsides and downsides of his candidacy. I think he would make a good president and I hope he has success in the nomination battle. The fact that many conservatives are not aware of his stand on social issues suggest that those issues are not ones that he will emphasize if elected. He has had high praise for Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Alito and if he goes with that type of nominee for the Supreme Court he should not run into problems with the Republican base.