The next Israeli-Hezballah war

John Keegan:

There will soon be another war in the Middle East, this time a renewal of the conflict between the Israel Defense Force and Hezbollah. The conflict is inevitable and unavoidable. It will come about because Israel cannot tolerate the rebuilding of Hezbollah's fortified zone in South Lebanon, from which last year it launched its missile bombardment of northern Israel.

Hezbollah has now reconstructed the fortified zone and is replenishing its stocks of missiles there. It is also creating a fortified zone in the Gaza Strip and building up its stocks of missiles there. Israel, therefore, faces missile attack on two fronts. When the Israel general staff decides the threat has become intolerable, it will strike.

What happened in South Lebanon earlier this year has been widely misunderstood, largely because the anti- Israel bias in the international press led to the situation being misreported as an Israeli defeat.

It was no such thing. It was certainly an Israeli setback, but the idea that the IDF had suddenly lost its historic superiority over its Arab enemies and that they had acquired military qualities that had hitherto eluded them was quite false. Hezbollah suffered heavy losses in the fighting, perhaps as many as 1,000 killed out of its strength of up to 5,000, and it is only just now recovering.

What allowed Hezbollah to appear successful was its occupation of the bunker-and-tunnel system that it had constructed since June 2000, when the IDF gave up its presence in South Lebanon, which it had occupied since 1967. Although the IDF had got into South Lebanon, the casualties it had suffered in entering the fortified zone had alarmed the government and high command, since Israel's tiny population is acutely vulnerable to losses in battle. Israel's plan was to destroy Hezbollah's tunnels and bunkers, but the sending of a U.N. intervention force did not allow the destruction to be completed before the IDF was forced to withdraw.

Tunnel systems have played a crucial part in many modern campaigns without attracting much attention. That is a serious oversight. The success of the Viet Cong in sustaining its war effort in Vietnam in 1968–72 depended heavily on its use of the so-called War Zone B, a complex of deep tunnels and underground bases north of Saigon, which had been begun during the war against the French in 1946–55.

War Zone B provided the Viet Cong with a permanent base of refuge and resupply that proved effectively invulnerable even against a determined American effort to destroy it. War Zone B has now become a major tourist attraction to Western visitors to Vietnam.

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The adoption of a tunnel strategy has allowed Hezbollah to wage asymmetric warfare against Israel's previously all-conquering armored forces. The tunnel system is also impervious to attack by the Israeli Air Force.

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It is therefore an easy prediction to foresee that the IDF will — at some time in the near future — reopen its offensive against Hezbollah in South Lebanon and will not cease until it has destroyed the underground system, even if, in the process, it inflicts heavy damage on the towns and villages of the region.

It is likely that it will also move against the underground system being constructed in the Gaza Strip. Hezbollah resupplies itself with arms and munitions brought from Egypt through those channels. Gaza is a softer target than South Lebanon, since it is an enclave that Israel easily dominates.

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The tunnel rats in Vietnam had some interesting battles in The tunnels of Chu Chi. Allowing Hezballah and Hamas to fortify tunnel systems from which to attack Israel should not be permitted. That they are evidence of the hostile intent of these religious bigots who wish to occupy Israel.

Update: Wretchard at the Belmont Club has more comments on this article and the cost of pacifism.