An invitation to more attacks in US

Melanie Phillips:

I am currently in America. The Republicans I have been meeting are remarkably upbeat about the Democrat victory in the mid-term elections. Partly, this is because they are so disenchanted with President Bush who they think has long lost the plot. Partly it’s because at this stage in the electoral cycle the President – whoever he is – has generally run out of steam anyway. But mainly it’s because they have a win-win view of the Democrats’ dilemma. Either, the Republicans think, the hard realities of coping with defending the country against terrorism at home and facing up to the terrible consequences of defeat in Iraq will force the Democrats into largely following the Bush agenda – thus in all likelihood tearing themselves apart in the process; or the reality-challenged wing of the Democratic party will be dominant and proceed to open the country’s borders, go soft on terror and wave the white flag in Iraq – in which case they will lose the Presidential election hands down.

Hmmn. I think something different: that the most likely outcome of these mid-term elections is another major terror attack on America. Whatever the smart analysis of the likely shape of domestic American politics over the next two years, America has now signalled a faltering of resolve; and that’s the cue for a redoubled Islamist attack.

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... Insurgencies take a long time to defeat. As I have previously written, the British took four years to work out what they were doing wrong in trying to defeat the insurgency in Malaya, and when they finally arrived at the right strategy took a further eight years actually to wrestle the insurgency to the ground. The US has been in Iraq for only three years. It is in the nature of such things that they take a long time, and that there are inevitably many mistakes and wrong turnings along the way. To vote in a bunch of people who have no stomach at all for fighting for the country’s defense, simply through impatience that the country hasn’t fought for it effectively enough, betrays serious confusion and lack of resolve. And it is precisely that which will now give such heart to our enemies. Have they not said, over and over again, that the west no longer has the determination or staying power to fight for its beliefs?

Europe proves the truth of this analysis every day. America proved it during the Carter and Clinton years, when it suffered attack after attack from the Islamists but never even understood that a war was being waged against it, let alone had the gumption to do anything about it. After 9/11, America finally seemed to have got the point. Now it has faltered again; and a desperately perilous world just got a lot less safe.

She is correct on several levels. Much of the problem goes back to the lack of comprehension of warfare and in particular war against insurgencies. The administration and the military did a poor job of communicating what it takes to defeat this kind of enemy. The President was left to sputter about it being tough, without explaining why it was tough and how we can still win. It now appears that the US will give an administration about three years to win wars that take about three times that long to win. Democrats will not give war even that much of a chance to win. However, their weakness and lack of resolve will take us back to the failures of the Clinton administration and will invite more attacks.