Electing Steele

Joel Mowbray:

The slew of stories in recent weeks on the key races for control of the Senate consistently have omitted the one candidacy that might represent the Republican Party's best chance of winning a seat in Congress' upper chamber tonight: Lt. Gov. Michael Steele in Maryland.
That Mr. Steele has been overlooked by political pros is understandable: He's running his own true campaign for the first time, and he's a Republican running in a very blue state in an election likely to be very good for Democrats. But as his campaign has been quick to remind voters at every turn, Mr. Steele is not a typical Republican. And if he wins, it will be for a reason that will be unique for a statewide Republican candidate, namely winning a significant chunk of the black vote.
Democrats have known for some time that Mr. Steele, who is black, was a threat to double (or more) the 5 percent to 10 percent of the black vote most Republicans win. An internal Democratic Party memo, in fact, said so explicitly. Nonetheless, the Maryland Democratic establishment lined up uniformly behind Rep. Ben Cardin in his primary against former head of the NAACP Kweisi Mfume, who is black.
That decision might come back to haunt Democrats, and not just in Maryland if Mr. Steele is the margin of difference for control of the Senate.
Polls have been all over the map in the past couple weeks, both on overall numbers and on black voters specifically. Even so, it seems a safe bet that Mr. Steele will win at least 20 percent of the black vote -- most polls show him at least in that range -- but it is the movement on the ground that most strongly suggests a Steele surge in the black vote.
Mr. Steele won the enthusiastic backing of hip-hop legend Russell Simmons -- an unabashed Democrat -- and he's also received support from a number of leading black pastors, influential figures in their communities. These endorsements are particularly significant in light of the anger felt by many black Democrats in Maryland after what they considered a snubbing of Mr. Mfume in the primary. And Mr. Cardin certainly didn't help his cause when he pulled out of an NAACP-sponsored debate at the last minute.
But the Republican has received no support more important than the backing of all five black members of the Prince George's County Council -- all of whom are elected Democrats. Mr. Steele hails from Largo, which is part of the vote-rich county, giving him an advantage already over his Baltimore-based opponent in terms of visibility in the Washington suburbs. Prince George's County, the wealthiest majority-minority county in the nation, is normally a reliable Democratic stronghold, but if Mr. Steele pulls over 35 percent there, his chance of victory skyrockets.
Of all the Senate races nationwide, none has had more volatile poll results than the Maryland contest. Two factors have created the most havoc in attempting to predict the status of the race, and both relate to the black vote: black turnout, and black support for Mr. Steele.
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Steele has run a very effective campaign. His ads have won praise from all sides, and he presents himself well in public interviews. He has fought back against the bias reporting from the Washington Post much more effectively than George Allen has in Virginia. The reporting has been unfair to both, but Steele has been more effective in dealing with it. His recent endorsements from black leaders may be significant. Polls are showing the race is a dead heat in a very blue state. Perhaps the GOP turnout machine can make the difference in this race. I think he will make a great senator.