Amir Taheri:
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...Hariri's murder was the inevitable consequence of a political model that has dominated Syria, and much of the Middle East, for half a century. The Syrians may or may not have been responsible for Hariri's assassination — and the Mehlis report does not provide conclusive evidence. But one thing is certain: Political murder has been routinely practiced under the Ba'ath regime since its inception in the 1960s.
Thus the trouble with Syria is not this single case of political assassination, but a whole edifice built on violence, terror and repression. As long as that edifice is unchanged, we cannot be sure that there will be no more political killings of this kind. (In fact, since Hariri's murder other prominent Lebanese have been killed under similar circumstances.)
Paradoxically, the custodians of the Syrian system may exploit the Hariri case as to get some brownie points and buy time for their regime. They could offer to "cooperate" with Mehlis, and even do a Moammar Khadafy by handing over a couple of security operatives as scapegoats. What matters to them, as it does to Khadafy, is hanging onto power, at any cost.
Even if Hariri's killers are brought to justice, the basic facts of the situation that led to his murder wouldn't change. The man appointed president of Lebanon by Damascus will remain in place for another 30 months. The thousands of Syrian secret agents in Lebanon, along with dozens of Lebanese politicians who have worked for Syria, sometimes for generations, would stick around until things cool down.
Syria would continue ferrying guns to Hezbollah and (as the Mehlis report ominously hints) keep its borders open for terrorists to go to Iraq as they please.
Inside Syria, hundreds of dissidents would continue to languish in prison while normal political and cultural activity remains severely restricted. An economic system in which the nation's trade is dominated by Mafia-style groups would remain intact, with virtually no popular participation at significant levels of decision-making.
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A scorpion does not sting because it wishes to misbehave; it is programmed to do so. Like all living organisms, a political system has its DNA.
The Mehlis mission is a side-show that could help fudge the real issue — which is the urgent need for changes in the nature of the Syrian regime.
Such change may not be welcome to some.
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