James Robbins:
Sunday was a great day for freedom in Iraq — and a bad day for the terrorists. They had big plans for Sunday. They were going to make it their day. Terror attacks intensified during the lead-up to the election as a prelude to something spectacular. Surely the terrorists wanted to accommodate — they had been talking about it for weeks, threatening voters with beheadings and other grisly consequences. They promised victory or martyrdom to their followers. Now it seems they have achieved neither.
Election day saw dozens of acts of random violence, but the terrorists had promised hundreds of attacks. Over 40 people were killed during the day, an unfortunate total but not an extraordinary one. Of the attacks that were executed, none were of particular notoriety. If any large-scale incident had been planned aimed at a symbolic target or vital center, it was either broken up by the excellent security system or the attackers failed to carry it out.
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Poor operational planning and coordination is typical of the insurgents in Iraq. They may know some tactical tricks, but their attacks do not seem to add up to much. In fact, insurgency is a poor word for describing what is going on inside Iraq. A true insurgency is better organized, its attacks are more coherent and better directed, and it has a long-term strategy, strong ideological foundations and a mass base. Few of the dozens of insurgent/terrorist groups in Iraq meet those requirements. Al Qaeda best meets the test, except for the fact that the group is largely comprised of foreigners and it does not enjoy mass support (there, or anywhere else in the world).
There is growing resentment for these foreign interlopers in Iraq, even among the other insurgent groups. An interesting cleavage opened during the election violence. Al Qaeda made disrupting the election a primary first quarter goal. Osama bin Laden and Abu-Musab al-Zarqawi made numerous lengthy statements laying out al Qaeda's ideological opposition to democracy and justifying violence against Muslims taking part in the elections. They shifted targeting to polling places, elections workers, politicians and police. During election day, al Qaeda carried out at least four attacks, but in published communiqués claimed many more, blaming a media blackout for hiding the truth. Yet, clearly, the impact fell short of what they had expected. Nevertheless, Zarqawi was unfazed. "We have more in store for you," he threatened.
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