Texas House races

Powerline:

The Hill, a newspaper that covers Capitol Hill, provides poll results for the five House races in Texas that have been considered competitive. Recall that redistricting placed seven incumbent Democrats in jeopardy. One retired and one switched parties.

The Hill shows Republicans ahead in four of the five races. Louis Gohmert leads Max Sandlin 48-39; Ted Poe leads Nick Lampson 41-37; Randy Neugebauer leads Charles Stenholm 53-23; and Pete Sessions leads Martin Frost 50-44. The only Democrat who leads is Chet Edwards. He's ahead of Arlene Wolhgemuth 50-40.

Frost's is the scalp that Tom DeLay seems most to covet, and his race is probably the most interesting. The poll showing him six points behind included hispanic voters as only four percent of the sample. Hispanics make up 36 percent of the district, but (according to the Sessions campaign) only 14 percent of registered voters. Moreover, their turnout has been extremely low in past elections. If Frost can substantially increase hispanic turnout, he probably has a decent chance.

Edwards has been much more aggressive in advertising, although the Club for Growth ad criticalof him may have some effect. Wolhgemuth has been stragely quit since the primary. This district includes Bryan-College Station, home of Texas A&M. Edward's ad tend to promote the things he has supported President Bush on and the Club for Growth ads point out issues where he has opposed Bush, primarily taxes and partial birth abortion.

Ted Poe is a colorful former judge who was notorious for his creative sentencings. His opponent Lampson is the incumbant whose main support comes from unions and trial lawyers in Beaumont. His district use to incude the Clake City--NASA area, but that is now in Tom Delay's district.

Frost big attack has been to show a picture of 18 year old Sessions streaking as a freshman in college. Session apparently has been able to prove he is truly a candidate with nothing to hide.

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