Why Bush is favored for reelection
Dana Milbank, Washington Post:
"...The day-to-day news about violence in Iraq and lingering economic worries at home obscure a fundamental reality about next year's election: Historically speaking, it should belong to President Bush. Since the presidential primary system became influential in 1952, an incumbent president has never lost a reelection bid if he did not face significant opposition in the primaries.
"...The pattern has repeated itself perfectly. Dwight D. Eisenhower, Richard M. Nixon, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton all ran for reelection without major challenges from within their own parties -- and all easily won second terms. Gerald R. Ford, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush faced primary challenges while seeking reelection -- and all were ousted in the general election.
"...Bush's campaign strategists, while predicting a close outcome next year, agree that the lack of a primary opponent is a significant source of strength for the president, allowing him unchallenged access to GOP donors and unrivaled freedom to embrace swing voters.
"...Democrats, by contrast, are vying with one another to appeal to their party's core supporters, far from the voters who usually decide election victories."
Dana Milbank, Washington Post:
"...The day-to-day news about violence in Iraq and lingering economic worries at home obscure a fundamental reality about next year's election: Historically speaking, it should belong to President Bush. Since the presidential primary system became influential in 1952, an incumbent president has never lost a reelection bid if he did not face significant opposition in the primaries.
"...The pattern has repeated itself perfectly. Dwight D. Eisenhower, Richard M. Nixon, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton all ran for reelection without major challenges from within their own parties -- and all easily won second terms. Gerald R. Ford, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush faced primary challenges while seeking reelection -- and all were ousted in the general election.
"...Bush's campaign strategists, while predicting a close outcome next year, agree that the lack of a primary opponent is a significant source of strength for the president, allowing him unchallenged access to GOP donors and unrivaled freedom to embrace swing voters.
"...Democrats, by contrast, are vying with one another to appeal to their party's core supporters, far from the voters who usually decide election victories."
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