The fall of the Assad regime in Syria

 Jonathan Spyer:

The astonishing and abrupt fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Damascus is a moment of historic importance for the Middle East, in which the shifting of tectonic plates can be plainly felt. But which plates in particular? And what are the immediate implications?

Firstly, it is important just to contemplate the dimensions of what has just taken place. The Assad regime’s beginning is usually dated to 1970. In that year Hafez Assad, father of the now deposed Bashar, launched a coup to topple his former ally, Salah Jadid, and proclaimed himself president. His family then ruled Syria, uninterruptedly, until this week. But it’s worth remembering that the Ba’ath party, through which both Assad and his predecessor emerged, had ruled Syria since 1963. So the fall of Bashar represents the end of 61 years of uninterrupted rule in Syria of this party.

The Assads of course long since emptied the structures and institutions of this party of any real role or content. Theirs was a family regime. The more meaningful broader foundation on which they rested was the support and cooptation of the Alawi community, from which the family hailed. The fall of the Assads represents the end of Alawi ascendancy in Syria, and the return of the domination of Syria’s Sunni Arab majority, from which the uprising emerged.

The end, when it came, was brief. A lightning dash by the Sunni Islamist Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) militia, down the spine of cities which fell like dominos in an astonishing ten days. First Aleppo, then Hama, Homs and finally Damascus. All with minimal resistance from the regime’s forces.
...

Syria is unlikely to be better off with the new regime.  I suspect the new guys are Islamist.  They probably took over with the help of Iran which has been in a downward spiral since it started launching attacks on Israel.  

See also:

Trump Says Russia Abandoned Syria's Assad, Never Should Have Been Involved

And:

 Syrian Rebels Topple President Assad, Prime Minister Calls for Free Elections

And:

 Drama in Syria| Rebels announce: We have toppled the Assad regime

Syrian rebels enter the capital Damascus, having earlier taken control of the city of Homs. According to reports, Assad has fled to an unknown location.

And:

 Iran Withdrawing From Syria Signals That Assad's Days in Power May Be Numbered

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