Polls that underestimated support for Trump

 NY Post:

The New York Times’ chief political analyst warned Sunday that pollsters may not have solved the underlying issues they encountered in 2016 and 2020 and could once again be underestimating Donald Trump.

Times scribe Nate Cohn, while cautioning on X that he has “no idea whether our polls (or any polls) polls [are] ‘right,’ ” explained that inescapable survey bias may be spoiling the results because Democrats dramatically outpace white Republicans, a Trump voting bastion, when it comes to answering pollsters.

“Four years ago, the polls were thought to underestimate Mr. Trump because of nonresponse bias — in which his supporters were less likely to take surveys than demographically similar Biden supporters,” Cohn wrote in an analysis for the Times.

Cohn 36, one of the foremost election-data gurus, stressed it is difficult to track “nonresponse bias” but noted that he likes to review the level at which Democrats and Republicans respond to pollsters to try to gain insights.

“Across these final polls, white Democrats were 16 percent likelier to respond than white Republicans,” he said. “It raises the possibility that the polls could underestimate Mr. Trump yet again. We do a lot to account for this, but in the end there are no guarantees.”
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The media demonization of Trump and his supporters is likely the reason many Trump supporters are reluctant to respond to pollsters.  I have no such reluctance.  Trump was clearly a better president than the Biden-Harris regime on both the economy and foreign policy.   The media's irrational hostility to Trump is also one of the reasons for some to be wary of pollsters.

See also:

Brace Yourself for the Latest Poll from 2020’s Most Accurate Pollster

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