Early voting favoring Trump
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The state of the race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is that it’s mostly a close election. Truly either candidate could win when all is said and done. That being said, you definitely want to be Donald Trump right now in the race because he has so many paths to victory that Kamala Harris simply doesn’t have.
There’s effectively only two paths to victory for Kamala Harris, save some impossible miracle that could never happen. She either picks off North Carolina or Georgia, or she maintains a blue wall with the three key Rust Belt states in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. That’s pretty much it.
Donald Trump, on the other hand, can skin this cat a million ways. Not only this, but there are reports that he is the only candidate with potential to surprise us the day after election night with a win in a state that was previously thought to be impossible for him to win.
As of Tuesday, Republicans have taken the lead over Democrats in early in-person voting in New Jersey, according to an analysis by Associated Press election researcher Ryan Dubicki. GOP voters have cast a total of 144,105 in-person ballots, compared to 139,524 from Democratic voters.
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Historically, Democrats have dominated early voting, with party leaders actively encouraging supporters to participate early in past elections. However, Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli expressed optimism about the recent trends. “What we’re seeing is phenomenal,” he said during an appearance on Fox & Friends First. He noted that Republicans are increasingly embracing early voting, highlighting a “fantastic” return rate on vote-by-mail ballots and commending local Republican organizations for effectively spreading the word.
The last time New Jersey backed a Republican presidential candidate was in 1988 when then-Vice President George H. W. Bush defeated Democratic nominee Michael Dukakis.
Despite the Republican surge in early in-person voting, Democrats still maintain a substantial lead in mail-in ballots. As of Saturday, Democrats had cast 357,924 mail-in ballots, compared to 121,003 by Republicans and 108,270 by unaffiliated voters, according to the New Jersey Globe. In total, 589,353 ballots were cast by mail in New Jersey as of that morning.
Former President Donald Trump continues to play a significant role in the state’s political landscape, having attracted nearly 100,000 attendees to a campaign rally in May. This year, several GOP leaders in swing states have adopted strategies previously employed by Democrats, encouraging early voting among their supporters.
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I have seen some indications that this contest could be determined by which gender turns out the most voters. Harris is apparently doing well with many women voters and Trump is dominating with men voters. I voted a few days ago in Texas and there appeared to be a good turnout. North Carolina still has some areas of the state isolated because of hurricane damage. That could impact turnout there. Georgia used to be a pretty conservative state but recent contests there show Democrats increasing turnout. Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin appear to be tossup states. Those are probably must-win states for Harris if she is to be competitive.
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