Lake takes the lead in Arizona Senate race

 DC Daily Journal:

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A new report about a key U.S. Senate race has dropped that is only adding fuel to the fire of the Democrats’ panic right now. The bad news for the Democrats just keeps coming in, this time it comes out of the Arizona U.S. Senate race between Kari Lake and Ruben Gallego.

A recent poll indicates a significant shift in the Arizona Senate race, with Republican candidate Kari Lake pulling ahead of Democratic Representative Ruben Gallego. The Tuesday Data Orbital survey, which included responses from 550 likely voters and has a margin of error of 4.26%, showed Lake garnering 45.2% support, while Gallego received 44.5%. This marks a notable change in a contest where Gallego had maintained a steady lead.
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However, the poll results may not be entirely indicative of the race’s trajectory. A separate CNN survey, involving 781 likely voters, found Lake trailing by approximately 8%. Additionally, RealClearPolitics (RCP) reports an average lead for Gallego of 4%.

What’s noteworthy is that Kari Lake’s internal polling numbers did not show her beating Gallego for many months. Only in the past few weeks has that started to change, according to the Kari Lake campaign. This does harmonize with the fact that a couple of new independent polls have shown Kari Lake tying up this race late. This new poll is adding to that conversation, meaning it’s possible Gallego is facing an upset loss that would really hurt the Democrats this November.

Historically, Lake has struggled to match the performance of former President Donald Trump, who leads Vice President Kamala Harris by an average of 2.5% in Arizona, according to RCP. The disparity in campaign financing is striking, with Democrats reportedly spending $88.2 million on advertising for the Senate race since Labor Day, compared to just $29.7 million by Republicans, as noted by Politico on October 18.

Lake’s campaign focuses on key issues such as border security, access to fresh water, energy independence, and inflation reduction. Immigration remains a contentious topic in the race, with Gallego taking a more centrist approach. In August 2023, he expressed support for Title 42, a Trump-era public health order that facilitated the expulsion of certain migrants. This marks a departure from his earlier stance in 2015, when he introduced legislation aimed at removing the term “illegal alien” from federal law.
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This is still a tight race. An influx of people from California has impacted Arizona's political posture and given Democrats a shot at winning.   I like Kaei Lake and hope she can prevail.  Trump's lead in Arizona should give Lake a boost.

See also:

Pair of New Polls Just Dropped and They Show Lake Beating Gallego in AZ Senate Race

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