Attack on 12 mile bridge a blow to Russian logistics
The July 17 attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge will likely have continuing ramifications on Russian logistics in southern Ukraine. Russian authorities accused Ukrainian special services of conducting an unmanned surface vehicle strike against the Kerch Strait Bridge between Russia and occupied Crimea on the morning of July 17.[1] Footage of the aftermath shows that one Kerch Strait Bridge road span had collapsed and another span suffered damage but remains intact.[2] The Russian Ministry of Transport claimed that the strikes did not damage the rail bridge or supports of the road bridge, and rail traffic across the Kerch Strait Bridge resumed several hours after the strike.[3] Russian occupation authorities rerouted heavy civilian traffic from occupied Crimea to Russia through occupied southern Ukraine, and Russian sources reported extensive traffic jams in Crimea’s Dzhankoy Raion and occupied Kherson Oblast towards Melitopol.[4] Russian tourists fleeing occupied Crimea likely exacerbated traffic and likely impeded Russian logistics from Crimea to rear areas in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts. Occupation authorities asked civilians to consider alternate evacuation routes to mitigate the immediate traffic issues.[5] Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Spokesperson Andrii Yusov declined to comment on Ukrainian involvement in the incident.[6] The Kerch Strait Bridge and military areas in occupied Crimea are legitimate military targets for Ukrainian forces in their defense against the full-scale Russian invasion and occupation of Ukraine, as ISW and Ukrainian officials have previously reported.[7]
The Russian government’s continued failure to put Russian society on a war-time footing will have significant impacts on Russian logistics as traffic from Russian tourism to occupied Crimea jams Russian logistics to southern Ukraine in the midst of the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south. The Kerch Strait Bridge is along one of two ground lines of communication (GLOCs) supporting Russia’s southern force grouping, with the other route passing through occupied Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts. This sole remaining logistics route is now a single point of failure for the supply of the large numbers of mechanized Russian forces in southern Ukraine needed to resist Ukrainian counteroffensives. Russian and occupation officials have nevertheless continued to promote occupied Crimea as a tourist destination, however, urging Russian civilians to drive through and to a warzone rather than advising them to avoid it as a responsible government would.[8] Russian occupation authorities recently struggled to mitigate traffic issues just from increased Russian tourism across the Kerch Strait Bridge, as ISW has previously reported.[9] Russian President Vladimir Putin even ordered the use of Russian military assets to ferry tourists across the Kerch Strait.[10] Some Russian milbloggers also suggested that the attack against the Kerch Strait Bridge should not reduce continued tourist flows.[11]
Russian logistics to southern Ukraine will likely suffer in the short and medium-term, likely exacerbating recent and significant complaints about inadequate Russian supplies in southern Ukraine....
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Russia's inability to protect a vital bridge is another example of how it underestimated Ukraine's military ability. It is something The Russian military has done from the beginning of the war and has gotten worse as Russia's losses have further weakened its military. It is likely to add to their current insubordination problem with their command and their troops. It is unlikely that Putin will take responsibility, but it will be interesting to see who he blames as a scapegoat.
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The crossing is a vital artery for supplying Russia’s ongoing war on Ukraine, allowing people and goods to flow into the Ukrainian territories that Moscow has occupied in the south and east of the country.
Also known as the Kerch Bridge, it holds personal value for Russian President Vladimir Putin. In the Kremlin narrative it marks the “reunification” of Crimea with the Russian mainland.
Monday’s attack on the crossing was the second since Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine – and Kyiv has reiterated that it hopes to reclaim the peninsula in its ongoing counteroffensive.
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The Kerch Bridge is strategically important because it links Russia’s Krasnodar region with Crimea, which was illegally annexed by Russia from Ukraine in 2014.
It also has huge symbolic importance for Russia, which built the 12-mile bridge – the longest in Europe – at a cost of around $3.7 billion. It was the physical expression of Putin’s objective to take over Ukraine and bind it to Russia forever.
The day it opened, Putin led a triumphant convoy over the bridge. Ukrainians revile the bridge, which stands as a reminder of Russian occupation.
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“At 03:05, two Ukrainian unmanned surface vehicles attacked the Crimean Bridge,” the NAC said. “As a result of the committed terrorist act, the road component of the Crimean bridge was damaged. Two adults were killed and one child was injured.”
The Baza telegram account shared videos appearing to show the damage to the bridge, with part of the closed roadway precariously tilting toward the water below.
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As well as holding crucial strategic significance as a supply for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion, the bridge is similarly important as a symbol of his hold over the region. Following the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, Putin ordered the construction of the bridge—the longest in Europe—to permanently cement the link between the seized peninsula and Russia’s mainland. He personally drove a truck over the bridge at its completion in 2018 and echoed the propaganda stunt by driving a Mercedes across it in December as repairs from the October blast were still underway.
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Relentless and brutal artillery battles between Russian and Ukrainian forces are a key feature of ongoing fighting, leaving both sides dependent on counter-battery detection to find and attack enemy fire.
But Moscow's troops lack enough critical radars to defeat Kyiv's artillery, with only a few hard-to-replace systems likely remaining, according to a new Western intelligence assessment.
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It also appears Russia lacks radar and other materials needed to protect the Kerch bridge to Crimea.
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Thousands of Ukrainian children have been forcibly deported to Belarus in an alleged war crime that could implicate president Alexander Lukashenko.
Some 2,150 Ukrainian children as young as six are estimated to have been taken to at least four camps in Belarus since September 2022, with the number expected to reach 3,000 by autumn this year. Some are alleged to have been given military training.
Evidence linking these crimes to Mr Lukashenko and other Belarusian officials has been submitted to the International Criminal Court (ICC), The Telegraph can reveal.
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Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, and Maria Lvova-Belova, Russia’s commissioner for children’s rights, already face an ICC arrest warrant, announced in March, for the alleged forced deportation of thousands of Ukrainian children into Russia.
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