Why a no-fly zone would not work in Ukraine

 Victor Davis Hanson:

There are several historical referents we should keep in mind about the Ukraine war.

First, no-fly zones. Lots of Westerners are calling for NATO aircraft to establish a no-fly zone above Ukraine to stop Russian bombing of Ukrainian cities.

That is a terrible idea. Russian planes can still launch missiles from the nearby airspace of Russia and Belarus. No nation in history has declared a no-fly zone against an adversarial nuclear power.

No-fly zones are best known from the 12-year air block over Iraq in between the two Gulf Wars.

NATO also imposed a no-fly zone over Bosnia and Herzegovina in the 1990s, and again over Libya in 2011.

These efforts were aimed respectively at the bloody though small-time dictators Saddam Hussein, Slobodan Milosevic, and Muammar Gaddafi. None had nuclear weapons.

Eventually the air patrols withered away. Often allies bickered about their relative contributions. Sometimes the zones failed to stop ongoing anarchy on the ground. Enemies often still used low-flying ground assault helicopters.

The United States never attempted a no-fly zone against either nuclear Russia or China during the Cold War — despite a long history of these countries supplying wartime enemies of ours.

No nation wishes to risk Armageddon over the skies of a third party.

...

There are more ideas being tossed around now in dealing with the Russian war in Ukraine.  Most are as unlikely of success as the no-fly zone.  I do not think the Russians are anywhere close to winning at this point.  They are mostly attriting their own forces.

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